Thirty-two teams, thirty-two previews, one very long month of August — our 2026 NFL Season Previews series wrapped right before Labor Day, and it’s time for the payoff post. Over the past several weeks our team broke down every roster, every coaching change, and every projected win total in the league. Now we’re putting it all together in one place: division winners, wild card teams in both conferences, both conference championship games, and our Super Bowl pick.
None of this is a fresh guess. Every call below traces back to the predicted record and win-total lean from that team’s individual preview, using the same reasoning framework we lean on all season over at scottspicks.com. Where a division race comes down to two teams with identical projected records, we say so and walk through the tiebreaker instead of just naming a winner and moving on.
AFC East: New England Patriots
Our previews project both the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills at 11-6, making this the tightest race in the conference on paper. Both cases are real: Buffalo added DJ Moore to finally give Josh Allen a true WR1, while New England enters off a 14-3, AFC East-winning run all the way to Super Bowl LX and added A.J. Brown to an offense that was already dangerous. We’re giving New England the tiebreaker on coaching continuity — Mike Vrabel’s program has already proven it can win close games and road games alike, while Buffalo is breaking in first-year head coach Joe Brady. The New York Jets (7-10) and Miami Dolphins (4-13) round out a division that’s really a two-team race up top.
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens
No tiebreaker needed here. Our team’s 12-5 projection for Baltimore is the best in the conference, full stop, built on a lighter 2026 schedule and an offseason that added Trey Hendrickson to the pass rush and Olaivavega Ioane up front. New head coach Jesse Minter inherits a genuinely complete roster. The Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers both project to 9-8, with real questions on the edge for Cincinnati and a 42-or-43-year-old quarterback for Pittsburgh, while the Cleveland Browns (6-11) are still rebuilding around the Myles Garrett trade.
AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars and Houston Texans both project to 10-7, and this one comes down to trust. Jacksonville went 13-4 last season, swept its own division, and kept its entire coaching staff intact under Liam Coen — that’s about as much continuity as a division winner gets. Houston is a fine team too, but our Texans preview flagged real decline in C.J. Stroud’s advanced metrics and a brutal six-game closing stretch, enough uncertainty to give Jacksonville the nod in a genuine coin-flip. The Indianapolis Colts (8-9) and Tennessee Titans (7-10) are both taking real steps, just not enough of one yet.
AFC West: Los Angeles Chargers
Another 10-7 tie, this time between the Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City’s case leans on an Eric Bieniemy reunion and a full bounce-back, but our own preview leans toward the under on their win total because so much of it depends on Patrick Mahomes returning from a torn ACL with zero hesitation from Week 1 on. The Chargers, by contrast, are chasing their first division title in 16 years off back-to-back 11-6 playoff seasons under Jim Harbaugh — a steadier baseline with less health-driven variance. We’re taking continuity over recovery here. The Denver Broncos (9-8) and Las Vegas Raiders (7-10) both carry real questions of their own, from last year’s one-score luck to this year’s rebuild.
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia projects to 11-6, clearing the rest of the division by at least two games even after trading A.J. Brown to New England. A new offensive coordinator in Sean Mannion is a real variable, but back-to-back division titles and a roster that’s still stacked on both lines make this the most straightforward call of the eight. The Dallas Cowboys (9-8) get a defensive overhaul under new coordinator Christian Parker, while the New York Giants (8-9) and Washington Commanders (8-9) are both projected to take real steps forward without threatening the top spot.
NFC North: Detroit Lions
Detroit projects to 11-6, the best mark in a division that sends its reigning champion, the Chicago Bears, to a projected 10-7 instead. Detroit poured its offseason into fixing the defense that let a 7-4 start collapse into a missed playoff berth, and a lighter non-division slate helps. Chicago is very much still in the mix — Ben Johnson’s program showed real staying power in year one — and both the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings project to 9-8 in a division that’s genuinely four teams deep.
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons
This is the one division where we have to flag a gap rather than paper over it. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ full 2026 preview hasn’t posted yet as of this wrap-up, so we don’t have a projected record for them to weigh against the rest of the division — worth knowing before treating this pick as final. Among the three teams we do have numbers for, both Atlanta and the New Orleans Saints project to 8-9, with the Carolina Panthers a game back at 7-10. We’re taking Atlanta on the tiebreaker: a retooled pass rush and a workhorse in Bijan Robinson give this roster more repeatable, talent-driven upside than New Orleans, whose closing four-game win streak last year came against four teams that all finished under .500. If Tampa Bay’s preview lands with a number that would top 8-9, this is the section worth revisiting first.
NFC West: Los Angeles Rams
The Rams project to 12-5, matching Baltimore for the best number in football, on the back of two significant defensive trades — landing Myles Garrett from Cleveland and Trent McDuffie from Kansas City. That’s the clear-cut best record in the division, even ahead of defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, who our team has regressing slightly to 11-6 after losing Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III in free agency. The San Francisco 49ers (10-7) get a full season of a healthy core after last year’s injury-riddled run, and the Arizona Cardinals (5-12) are in a clear transition year under a new coaching staff.
Wild Card Teams
Seven teams make the playoffs per conference, so each side needs three wild cards on top of its four division winners.
In the AFC, Buffalo Bills (11-6) miss the East but still carry the second-best record in the conference, riding the Josh Allen-DJ Moore offense into the field regardless of the division outcome. Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs both land at 10-7 — Houston on the strength of a top-tier defense even with the Stroud questions, and Kansas City on pure talent even while our own preview leans the under on their win total, which tells you how much confidence the market is placing in a fully healthy Mahomes.
In the NFC, Seattle Seahawks (11-6) come back as a wild card rather than a division champion, a real sign of how much Los Angeles closed the gap out West. Chicago Bears (10-7) carry over real momentum from Ben Johnson’s first year, and San Francisco 49ers (10-7) get in on the strength of a full season with Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and George Kittle all healthy at once — something that never happened in 2025.
Conference Championships
AFC Championship: Baltimore Ravens over Buffalo Bills. Baltimore is the most complete roster left standing — the best projected record in the conference, a retooled pass rush, and a defense built to close out January games. Buffalo’s offense is the toughest matchup problem in the field, but asking first-year head coach Joe Brady to win his first real gauntlet against a team as balanced as Baltimore is a lot to ask in year one. We like the Ravens’ floor over the Bills’ ceiling here.
NFC Championship: Los Angeles Rams over Seattle Seahawks. This one’s a rematch — Seattle beat Los Angeles in last year’s NFC Championship Game on the way to a Super Bowl LX title. The Rams spent this offseason specifically closing that gap, trading for Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie to fix the defensive shortfall that cost them the first time around. Seattle is still talented enough to make it close, but those roster moves were made with this exact rematch in mind, and we think they show up when it counts.
Super Bowl Pick
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Rams — appropriately, the two best predicted records in football meeting in Super Bowl LXI, both sitting at a projected 12-5.
We’re taking the Rams. Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford already have a conference title game under their belts from a year ago, and the two defensive trades that got them past Seattle should hold up just as well against a Ravens offense that’s more balanced than explosive. Baltimore’s roster might be the more talented of the two on paper, but new head coach Jesse Minter would be doing this for the first time on the sport’s biggest stage, and that kind of edge tends to matter in a game this close. Our projection: Rams 27, Ravens 24.
That’s a wrap on the 2026 NFL Season Previews series — thanks for following along with us all month. We’ll be tracking these projections against the market as the season plays out, the same way we approach every pick.