The Detroit Lions spent 2024 looking like the best team in football, then spent the second half of 2025 reminding everyone how quickly that can slip away. With a new defensive coordinator settling in and a retooled roster around Jared Goff, 2026 is a real referendum on whether last year’s collapse was bad luck or something more structural.
2025 Season Recap
Detroit opened 2025 at 7-4 and looked every bit like the Super Bowl favorite many expected after a 15-2 campaign in 2024. Then the wheels came off: the Lions won just two of their final six games and were officially eliminated from playoff contention following a Week 17 loss to Minnesota on Christmas Day, a game in which they turned the ball over a season-high six times. It was Detroit’s first missed postseason since 2022, and the slide traced back to a Week 9 home loss to the Vikings that flipped the season’s momentum.
Individually, there was still plenty to like. Jared Goff kept the offense humming, Jahmyr Gibbs remained one of the league’s most dynamic playmakers, and kicker Jake Bates tied a franchise record with a 59-yard field goal in Week 12. But the season’s defining storyline was a defense that couldn’t hold leads late, and it cost longtime coordinator Aaron Glenn his job in Detroit — he left to become head coach of the New York Jets, with the Lions receiving third-round compensatory picks in both the 2025 and 2026 drafts as part of the exit.
Offseason Moves
With Glenn gone, Kelvin Sheppard stepped in as the new defensive coordinator, and the offseason priority was obvious: fix a unit that allowed 27-plus points in more than half its games last season, including five straight late in the year. Detroit added defensive pieces across the board — linebackers D.J. Wonnum and Damone Clark, defensive end Payton Turner, and defensive backs Christian Izien and Roger McCreary — while also re-signing cornerback Rock Ya-Sin on a one-year deal. The 2026 draft class doubled down on that plan: the Lions used their first two picks on Clemson offensive tackle Blake Miller and Michigan edge rusher Derrick Moore, followed by linebacker Jimmy Rolder (also out of Michigan), cornerback Keith Abney II, and two more defensive linemen on Day 3.
On offense, Detroit brought in Drew Petzing as its new offensive coordinator and used free agency to patch specific holes: running back Isiah Pacheco arrives from Kansas City to help replace David Montgomery, Cade Mays signed a three-year deal to take over at center, and tight end Tyler Conklin was added as insurance behind an injured Sam LaPorta. Wide receiver Greg Dortch reunites with Petzing on a one-year deal, and the offensive line got further depth from Larry Borom and Ben Bartch. The team did lose some familiar names on defense, with linebacker Alex Anzalone and edge rusher Al-Quadin Muhammad both departing for Tampa Bay.
2026 Season Outlook
By most measures, Detroit’s non-divisional slate is one of the lighter ones in the league, with games against teams like the Titans, Jets, Cardinals, and Giants dotting the schedule. But the real test lives inside the NFC North. The Lions face Chicago twice — including a Week 17 trip to a much-improved Bears team in the Soldier Field cold — plus a Week 8 date with Minnesota, which swept Detroit in 2025, and two more games against Green Bay. A Week 2 showdown with Josh Allen and Buffalo stands out as an early measuring-stick game as well. However the non-division games shake out, this division is almost certainly what decides Detroit’s playoff fate.
Our Team’s Projection
We’re projecting Detroit at 11-6 for 2026, which would lean toward the over on the team’s current season win total of 10.5. The reasoning starts with the point differential: Detroit posted a +68 mark in 2025 even through the late-season slide, which is usually a sign of a team that was better than its record — a fourth straight top-five scoring offense doesn’t fade overnight, and the roster added real defensive investment this offseason rather than standing pat.
The case for the under is fair too. Drew Petzing is a new offensive coordinator learning a roster on the fly, the offensive line lost multiple contributors it now needs Cade Mays and Larry Borom to replace, and a defense that struggled to close out games late in 2025 has to prove that fix on the field before we take it on faith. The division schedule alone — two games apiece against Chicago and Green Bay, plus a revenge date with Minnesota — is unforgiving enough to keep this number honest. For more on the reasoning behind a bet like this one, our team broke down how season win totals actually work in a recent Bet Smarter piece, and it’s worth a read before locking in a number on Detroit. Division rival Chicago, for what it’s worth, is part of that swing factor too — see our Bears season preview for the other side of that rivalry.