A year ago, the question surrounding the New England Patriots was how far a rebuild under a new coaching staff might go. Twelve months later, after an AFC East title and a trip to Super Bowl LX, the question has flipped entirely: can this team stay at the top of a conference that just watched them get there in a hurry?
2025 Season Recap
Mike Vrabel’s first season in New England produced one of the more dramatic turnarounds in recent NFL memory. After back-to-back seasons of 13-plus losses, the Patriots went 14-3, won the AFC East for the first time since 2019, and became the first team in NFL history to finish a season 9-0 on the road. The 14-3 mark tied the largest single-season win-total turnaround in league history and gave New England its best winning percentage since the Super Bowl LI-winning 2016 team. Vrabel was named NFL Coach of the Year, and quarterback Drake Maye threw for more than 4,000 yards while the offense produced its first 1,000-yard receiver since 2019.
The playoff run was just as improbable. New England beat the Chargers in the Wild Card round, the Texans in the Divisional round, and won on the road in the AFC Championship Game at Denver before falling to the Seahawks in Super Bowl LX. It was the franchise’s sixth Super Bowl loss, evening its all-time Super Bowl record at 6-6, but reaching the game at all one year after a 13-loss season was itself a first in NFL history. Running back Antonio Gibson’s season ended early with a torn ACL in Week 5, a reminder that even a historic turnaround came with real setbacks along the way.
Offseason Moves
New England’s coaching staff stayed largely intact after a run to the Super Bowl. Josh McDaniels returns as offensive coordinator, while the defensive staff shuffled up a level: Terrell Williams was promoted to assistant head coach, with Zak Kuhr elevated to defensive coordinator.
The headline move of the offseason didn’t come in free agency at all — it came in a trade. New England acquired star wide receiver A.J. Brown from the Philadelphia Eagles, sending Philadelphia a 2028 first-round pick and a 2027 fifth-round pick in return. Pairing Brown with Drake Maye instantly raises the ceiling on an offense that already found its footing a year ago. New England also added receiver Romeo Doubs from Green Bay on a four-year deal worth up to $80 million, giving Maye a third established target alongside Brown and the team’s existing receiving corps.
Up front, guard Alijah Vera-Tucker signed a three-year, $42 million deal, and the Patriots added edge rusher Dre’Mont Jones on a three-year, $39.5 million contract to bolster the pass rush. On the back end, safety Kevin Byard III, who intercepted seven passes with the Bears in 2025, joined on a one-year deal. Tight end Julian Hill came over from Miami as the No. 2 option behind Hunter Henry. New England did lose some familiar faces — center Garrett Bradbury was traded to the Bears for a 2027 fifth-round pick, safety Jaylinn Hawkins left for Baltimore, and tight end Austin Hooper signed with Atlanta.
In the draft, New England used its first-round pick (No. 28 overall) on Utah offensive tackle Caleb Lomu, continuing to invest in protection for Maye, then added Illinois edge rusher Gabe Jacas in Round 2 and Notre Dame tight end Eli Raridon in Round 3.
2026 Season Outlook
Following up a 14-win season was never going to come with an easy schedule, and it hasn’t — New England’s 2026 slate is one of the toughest in the league, built around eight opponents that made the playoffs a year ago and matchups against five of the other seven reigning division champions. The road slate alone includes a Super Bowl LX rematch at Seattle, plus trips to Jacksonville, Detroit, Chicago, Kansas City, and the Chargers. At home, the Patriots host the AFC’s top seed from Denver among a schedule full of measuring-stick games. New England also plays an international game against the Lions in Week 10.
The AFC East itself looks more competitive than it has in years, with the Bills and Dolphins both still very much in the mix, which means New England’s margin for error inside the division may be thinner than last year’s runaway title suggests.
Our Team’s Projection
We’re projecting the Patriots at 11-6 for 2026. That’s a step back from last year’s 14-3 pace, but it still represents a genuinely strong season given the level of competition on the schedule, and it reflects a roster that got measurably better on offense even as the schedule got measurably harder.
New England’s season win total sits at 10.5 at DraftKings (Over +115 / Under -140), up from 9.5 earlier in the offseason largely on the strength of the A.J. Brown trade. Our 11-6 projection leans toward the over. The case for it: Drake Maye now has one of the league’s most dangerous receivers to throw to, the offensive line got reinforcements in both free agency and the draft, and Vrabel’s program showed last year it can win close games and road games alike. The case for staying under: this schedule is genuinely brutal by the numbers, integrating a new top receiver and a new defensive coordinator both carry real transition risk, and a team coming off a Super Bowl run has to prove it can avoid a letdown against a murderer’s row of playoff-caliber opponents.
Win totals like this one are as much about schedule strength as roster talent — for more on how these markets work, check out our Bet Smarter breakdown on how season win totals actually work.
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