Kickoff is here — the 2026 NFL regular season officially begins tomorrow, and our three Splash Sports “The Big Splash” entries play their actual Week 1 games this Sunday. This is the last update before we’re grading real results instead of practice reports. Two threads moved enough this week to write up; nothing moved enough to change a pick.
What Changed
- Ashton Jeanty (Raiders RB, Entry A’s Week 1 pick) still hasn’t returned to full practice on his sprained ankle — he was out again Tuesday and Wednesday this week — but the tone from the building keeps improving. GM John Spytek said this week Jeanty is “in a good spot” and that he expects him back “as quick as he can, maybe quicker than some people would expect,” and the Raiders carried just three running backs on their initial 53-man roster, which reads as a team that expects to need him. Still no official game-status designation; that comes closer to Sunday.
- Jaguars OG Patrick Mekari’s outlook got materially clearer this week. He was formally placed on injured reserve with a designation to return as part of the Aug. 30 roster cutdown, which sets a hard four-game minimum (he’s out at least through Week 4) rather than the open-ended “no specific timeline” we had last week. GM James Gladstone added he expects Mekari back “quickly thereafter” that four-game threshold — practically speaking, a Week 5-ish target. Ezra Cleveland is manning right guard in the meantime. None of this touches Entry C’s Week 1 pick, which was never built around Mekari being healthy.
- Micah Parsons’ Week 6 return target picked up a third independent confirmation, this time from Packers GM Brian Gutekunst: “Once we get out of that four-week window, we’re going to be pretty close” to having him available. Same number we’ve been carrying since mid-August — no change to Entry B’s discounted Green Bay figure in Week 3.
Entry A: Holding Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1
Entry A stays on the Las Vegas Raiders (69% vs. Miami) for Week 1. Jeanty remains the single most-watched injury on our entire board — he’s been off the practice field in some form since Aug. 23, and the Raiders still haven’t attached an official designation. We looked seriously, again, at pulling a stronger team forward to de-risk the pick outright: Denver Broncos (89% in their actual Week 13 slot) and Baltimore Ravens (87% in Week 16) both remain on the table as the alternates we keep coming back to. We’re passing again for the same reason as last week — Weeks 12–16 carry roughly 1.7x the cost weight of a single week in our model, so spending a top-tier team there to insure against a worst-case Jeanty absence is a bad trade, especially since Miami enters the opener with Malik Willis under center rather than a fully established starter, which keeps the Raiders comfortable favorites even in a run-light game plan. We’re holding Las Vegas.
Entry B: Holding Tennessee Titans in Week 1
Entry B stays on the Tennessee Titans (65% vs. the Jets). The alternate we keep discussing here is pulling Entry B’s Week 2 Los Angeles Chargers pick (84% vs. Las Vegas) forward a week, since Rashawn Slater himself has targeted the Week 1 opener at Arizona for his return from last year’s torn patellar tendon. We’re passing again: Slater’s Week 1 debut is still a bet on a player who hasn’t taken a full-contact practice rep since a camp flare-up, while his Week 2 availability is a much safer assumption by the time it matters. On the matchup itself, the Jets enter their opener without any real Week 1 injury concerns of note — RB Breece Hall (groin) and the rest of the offense look full-go — but a healthy Jets team is still a rebuilding one, and Tennessee holds up fine as the favorite. Titans stay the pick.
Entry C: Holding Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1
Entry C stays on the Jacksonville Jaguars (81% vs. Cleveland), still our strongest Week 1 number across all three entries. We again checked whether either of Entry C’s Week 3 double-pick teams — Detroit Lions (88%) or Kansas City Chiefs (81%) — made more sense pulled forward, and again passed for the same reason as always: Week 3 is a double-pick week, weighted roughly 1.3x a single week in our cost model, and both teams are doing real work there that a Week 1 swap wouldn’t meaningfully improve on. Cleveland’s roster is set with Deshaun Watson making just his second-ever regular-season start at quarterback, and while Patrick Mekari’s clearer IR timeline (above) is worth knowing, it’s a Jacksonville depth question, not a reason to doubt this particular matchup. Jacksonville remains the pick.
The Full 18-Week Roadmap
No changes from last week — every pick below is unchanged since Aug. 11 except the Week 3 Green Bay discount noted with a dagger. Survival odds in the last column are the cumulative product of each entry’s weekly win probabilities (both picks multiplied together on double-pick weeks).
| Wk | Entry A | Entry B | Entry C | Survival Odds (A / B / C) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Vegas Raiders (vs Miami Dolphins, 69%) | Tennessee Titans (vs New York Jets, 65%) | Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Cleveland Browns, 81%) | 69.0% / 65.0% / 81.0% |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs Cleveland Browns, 74%) | Los Angeles Chargers (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 84%) | Atlanta Falcons (vs Carolina Panthers, 61%) | 51.1% / 54.6% / 49.4% |
| 3 (DOUBLE) | New Orleans Saints (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 72%) San Francisco 49ers (vs Arizona Cardinals, 89%) |
New York Giants (vs Tennessee Titans, 66%) Green Bay Packers (vs Atlanta Falcons, 66%)† |
Detroit Lions (vs New York Jets, 88%) Kansas City Chiefs (@Miami Dolphins, 81%) |
32.7% / 23.8% / 35.2% |
| 4 | Minnesota Vikings (vs Miami Dolphins, 84%) | Chicago Bears (vs New York Jets, 82%) | New York Giants (vs Arizona Cardinals, 79%) | 27.5% / 19.5% / 27.8% |
| 5 | Cincinnati Bengals (@Miami Dolphins, 79%) | New England Patriots (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 84%) | Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Indianapolis Colts, 63%) | 21.7% / 16.4% / 17.5% |
| 6 (DOUBLE) | New England Patriots (vs New York Jets, 85%) Los Angeles Rams (vs Arizona Cardinals, 93%) |
Philadelphia Eagles (vs Carolina Panthers, 79%) Indianapolis Colts (vs Tennessee Titans, 68%) |
Buffalo Bills (@Las Vegas Raiders, 79%) Baltimore Ravens (@Cleveland Browns, 77%) |
17.2% / 8.8% / 10.7% |
| 7 | New York Jets (vs Miami Dolphins, 67%) | Houston Texans (vs New York Giants, 76%) | Tennessee Titans (vs Cleveland Browns, 61%) | 11.5% / 6.7% / 6.5% |
| 8 | Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Cleveland Browns, 74%) | Dallas Cowboys (vs Arizona Cardinals, 86%) | Green Bay Packers (vs Carolina Panthers, 78%) | 8.5% / 5.8% / 5.1% |
| 9 (DOUBLE) | Seattle Seahawks (vs Arizona Cardinals, 92%) Kansas City Chiefs (vs New York Jets, 85%) |
Detroit Lions (@Miami Dolphins, 85%) San Francisco 49ers (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 84%) |
Chicago Bears (vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 64%) New Orleans Saints (vs Cleveland Browns, 70%) |
6.7% / 4.1% / 2.3% |
| 10 | Indianapolis Colts (vs Miami Dolphins, 81%) | Los Angeles Rams (@Arizona Cardinals, 87%) | Houston Texans (@Cleveland Browns, 71%) | 5.4% / 3.6% / 1.6% |
| 11 | Dallas Cowboys (vs Tennessee Titans, 76%) | Kansas City Chiefs (vs Arizona Cardinals, 89%) | Los Angeles Chargers (vs New York Jets, 86%) | 4.1% / 3.2% / 1.4% |
| 12 (DOUBLE) | Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Tennessee Titans, 79%) Washington Commanders (@Arizona Cardinals, 68%) |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs Carolina Panthers, 68%) Cleveland Browns (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 60%) |
Cincinnati Bengals (vs New Orleans Saints, 71%) Indianapolis Colts (vs New York Giants, 61%) |
2.2% / 1.3% / 0.6% |
| 13 (DOUBLE) | Denver Broncos (vs Miami Dolphins, 89%) Philadelphia Eagles (@Arizona Cardinals, 82%) |
Minnesota Vikings (vs Carolina Panthers, 69%) Cincinnati Bengals (@Cleveland Browns, 68%) |
Washington Commanders (@Tennessee Titans, 52%) Seattle Seahawks (vs Dallas Cowboys, 74%) |
1.6% / 0.6% / 0.2% |
| 14 (DOUBLE) | Chicago Bears (@Miami Dolphins, 78%) Detroit Lions (vs Tennessee Titans, 85%) |
Baltimore Ravens (vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 76%) Seattle Seahawks (vs New York Giants, 82%) |
Denver Broncos (@New York Jets, 75%) Philadelphia Eagles (vs Indianapolis Colts, 75%) |
1.1% / 0.4% / 0.1% |
| 15 (DOUBLE) | Green Bay Packers (vs Miami Dolphins, 90%) New York Giants (vs Cleveland Browns, 68%) |
Denver Broncos (@Las Vegas Raiders, 72%) Washington Commanders (vs Atlanta Falcons, 61%) |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs New Orleans Saints, 63%) Los Angeles Rams (vs Dallas Cowboys, 75%) |
0.7% / 0.2% / 0.1% |
| 16 (DOUBLE) | Baltimore Ravens (vs Cleveland Browns, 87%) Los Angeles Chargers (@Miami Dolphins, 82%) |
New Orleans Saints (vs Arizona Cardinals, 81%) Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Carolina Panthers, 68%) |
New England Patriots (@New York Jets, 75%) Minnesota Vikings (vs Washington Commanders, 64%) |
0.5% / 0.1% / 0.03% |
| 17 | Buffalo Bills (@Miami Dolphins, 86%) | Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Washington Commanders, 71%) | Dallas Cowboys (vs New York Giants, 69%) | 0.4% / 0.1% / 0.02% |
| 18 | Houston Texans (vs Tennessee Titans, 81%) | Buffalo Bills (vs New York Jets, 89%) | San Francisco 49ers (@Arizona Cardinals, 81%) | 0.3% / 0.06% / 0.02% |
† Green Bay’s Week 3 win probability is revised down from 76% on Micah Parsons’ absence — see prior posts for the original adjustment.
What’s Next
Week 1 games finally kick off this Sunday, Sept. 13, for all three of our entries — Raiders host Miami, Titans host the Jets, and Jaguars host Cleveland. Our next post will grade the actual results against these picks for the first time this season, alongside whatever Week 2 news moves the board. Ashton Jeanty’s game status is still the one thing we’re watching most closely between now and kickoff.