For the first time in a decade, the Kansas City Chiefs enter a season as an unknown quantity rather than a favorite. A shocking collapse, a torn ACL for the league’s best quarterback, and a coaching change on offense have this dynasty looking to prove it still has one more run in it — here’s our team’s full breakdown of where things stand heading into 2026.
2025 Season Recap
The 2025 season was a genuine collapse for Kansas City. After opening 0-2, the Chiefs clawed back to 5-3 before losing eight of their final nine games, including a six-game losing streak to close the year, and finished 6-11 — missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014 and surrendering the AFC West title for the first time in nine seasons. The Chiefs were a strong 5-4 at home but fell apart on the road at 1-7, and were swept by both the Broncos and the Chargers for the first time in over a decade against each rival.
The season’s defining moment came in Week 15 against the Chargers, when Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL and was lost for the rest of the year. Backup Gardner Minshew was hurt the following week, forcing third-stringer Chris Oladokun into the lineup for the final two games. Andy Reid stayed on as head coach and Brett Veach as general manager, but the offense finished 20th in scoring under then-coordinator Matt Nagy — a steep fall for a unit that had defined the league for most of the past decade.
Offseason Moves
The biggest change came on the coaching staff: Kansas City brought back Eric Bieniemy as offensive coordinator, reuniting him with Reid after a three-year run that took him to Washington, UCLA, and the Chicago Bears’ running backs room. Bieniemy previously ran the Chiefs’ offense from 2018-2022, a stretch in which Kansas City led the NFL in scoring, and he replaces Nagy after last season’s offensive slide.
In free agency, the Chiefs made a clear push to fix their running game, signing Kenneth Walker III to a three-year deal worth $28.7 million guaranteed. They also added safety Alohi Gilman, defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga, and receiver Tyquan Thornton, while re-signing Travis Kelce on a one-year deal to keep the future Hall of Famer in the fold for at least one more season. On the other side of the ledger, Kansas City lost several defensive pieces: safety Bryan Cook (Bengals), cornerback Jaylen Watson (Rams), linebacker Leo Chenal (Commanders), and edge rusher Charles Omenihu (Commanders), along with running back Isiah Pacheco (Lions) and receiver Hollywood Brown (Eagles).
The draft doubled down on fixing the secondary and the trenches. With the No. 6 overall pick, Kansas City took LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane, viewed by evaluators as the class’s top corner, then added Clemson defensive lineman Peter Woods at No. 29. Oklahoma pass rusher Mason Thomas went in the second round, and Oregon slot corner Jadon Canady added further secondary depth in Round 4 — a clear effort to replace the corner depth that walked out the door in free agency.
2026 Season Outlook
Everything about Kansas City’s 2026 outlook runs through Mahomes’ recovery timeline. His availability for Week 1 remains uncertain, and how quickly he returns to form will likely determine whether this is a bounce-back year or another long fall. The schedule doesn’t offer much of a running start either — the slate includes the full AFC East (Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets) and full NFC West (49ers, Seahawks, Rams, Cardinals), plus the usual twice-a-year dates with Denver, Las Vegas, and the Chargers, who swept Kansas City a season ago. Our Broncos preview covers the other side of that AFC West rivalry in more detail.
The Chiefs will play eight home games against nine on the road, and a Week 7 trip to face the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks stands out as one of the toughest single games on the board. If the secondary additions gel quickly and Mahomes returns anywhere near full strength, there’s a real path back to the top of the division. If either of those things lags, 2026 could look a lot like last season’s second half.
Our Team’s Projection
We’re projecting Kansas City at 10-7 for 2026. That’s a real step forward from last year’s 6-11 finish, built on the Bieniemy reunion, a genuinely upgraded backfield, and a defense that added real talent at cornerback even after losing pieces in free agency.
The Chiefs’ season win total opened at 10.5, with the over priced at +115 and the under at -140 — and the market’s lean toward the under lines up with real uncertainty here. Our projection of 10-7 leans toward the under, and the case for it starts with Mahomes: any hesitation in his Week 1 readiness, or any setback early in the season, makes 10-plus wins a tough ask behind a schedule that opens against two full divisions rather than a softer slate. There’s a strong over case too — Bieniemy’s track record with this exact roster core, a revamped run game, and a secondary that’s genuinely better on paper than a year ago all point toward this team looking much more like the perennial AFC West favorite than the group that lost eight of nine to close 2025. For more on how to think through a bet like this, our team broke down the mechanics in Bet Smarter: How Season Win Totals Actually Work.
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