The Minnesota Vikings spent 2025 searching for a stable answer at quarterback and never quite found one, yet still nearly played their way into the postseason. Heading into 2026, they’ve made the boldest kind of bet to fix that problem — here’s our team’s full breakdown of where things stand.
2025 Season Recap
Minnesota finished 2025 at 9-8, missing the playoffs despite closing the year on a five-game winning streak that came one game too late — the Vikings were eliminated from contention in Week 15 even as they kept winning. The season was defined by a chaotic quarterback carousel: rookie J.J. McCarthy opened the year as the starter and flashed real upside, including a three-touchdown, come-from-behind performance against Chicago, before a high-ankle sprain ended his run in Week 2. Carson Wentz stepped in and started through Week 8 before a season-ending shoulder injury, and Max Brosmer closed out the year under center, struggling badly in stretches, including a four-interception, 32.8 passer-rating shutout loss in Week 13.
The defense carried this team. Under coordinator Brian Flores, Minnesota finished 2nd in the NFL in passing defense and 3rd overall, even as the offense ranked just 28th. Injuries piled up up front and at receiver, with starters like left tackle Christian Darrisaw and center Ryan Kelly missing extended time. For the first time since 2014, the Vikings didn’t send a single player to the Pro Bowl — a quiet but telling sign of just how much the quarterback instability weighed on the rest of the roster.
Offseason Moves
The headline move of Minnesota’s offseason was a quarterback swap few saw coming: after Arizona released Kyler Murray, the Vikings signed him to a one-year, league-minimum deal and, following a training camp competition, head coach Kevin O’Connell named him the starter over McCarthy. It’s a low-cost, high-upside bet — Murray brings two Pro Bowl selections and 87 career starts of experience, along with the kind of athleticism that could open up an offense that badly needed a spark last season. McCarthy remains in the quarterback room and, per O’Connell, still has a real future with the team, but for now he’s back to developing from the bench.
On defense, Minnesota kept its most important piece in place, signing coordinator Brian Flores to a contract extension rather than letting him test the open market for head-coaching jobs elsewhere. That continuity came at a cost up front, though: the Vikings lost both interior defensive linemen Jonathan Allen (to Cincinnati) and Javon Hargrave (to Green Bay) in free agency, and released longtime safety Harrison Smith after 14 seasons in Minnesota — a significant loss of both production and locker-room leadership. The coaching staff saw turnover as well, with secondary/passing-game coordinator Daronte Jones leaving to become Washington’s defensive coordinator; Minnesota promoted quarterbacks coach Josh McCown to passing-game coordinator and added Frank Smith from Miami as assistant head coach.
In the draft, Minnesota used its first-round pick (No. 18 overall) on defensive lineman Caleb Banks out of Florida, a direct answer to the Allen and Hargrave departures, then added linebacker Jake Golday (Cincinnati) in the second round and a trio of Day 3 defenders — defensive lineman Domonique Orange (Iowa State), tackle Caleb Tiernan (Northwestern), and safety Jakobe Thomas (Miami) — across the third round, further restocking the defensive front and secondary depth behind Flores’ unit.
2026 Season Outlook
Minnesota’s 2026 schedule lands right around the middle of the pack in projected difficulty — one ranking has it 16th-toughest league-wide — but it’s front-loaded with playoff-caliber opponents, including home games against Buffalo and Miami and road trips to San Francisco and Tampa Bay. The Vikings open at home against division rival Green Bay and close the year at Chicago, bookending the slate with NFC North matchups. The roughest patch comes in Weeks 10-11, when Minnesota travels to Green Bay before playing its first game ever in Mexico City against the 49ers, and a short-week Thursday night road trip to New England in Week 14 adds another wrinkle. The Vikings take their bye early, in Week 6, for a third straight season.
Our Team’s Projection
We’re projecting Minnesota at 9-8 for 2026. The defense should again be one of the league’s stingier units with Flores back and the front seven restocked through the draft, and if Murray’s mobility and arm talent translate the way Minnesota is hoping, this offense has a real chance to be more explosive than the injury-battered version that ranked 28th a year ago.
Minnesota’s season win total opened at 8.5, priced at even money (-110) on both sides. Our 9-8 projection leans toward the over, built mainly on the defense’s continuity and the upside Murray offers if he settles in quickly with a new offense. The case for the under is just as real, though: Murray is learning a new system on a one-year deal, the Vikings lost real experience up front and in the secondary with Allen, Hargrave, and Harrison Smith all gone, and that Week 10-11 stretch — at Green Bay, then an international trip to face San Francisco — could knock this team off pace before it ever finds a rhythm. For more on how to think through a number like this one, our team broke down how season win totals actually work in our Bet Smarter series.