The Houston Texans enter 2026 as a team trying to turn a promising-but-unfinished playoff run into something more — a rebuilt offensive line, a healthier backfield, and a defense that’s already among the league’s best give our team plenty to dig into as this season takes shape.
2025 Season Recap
Houston’s 2025 season was a study in contrasts. The Texans opened 0-3, looked like they might be heading nowhere, then reeled off a nine-game winning streak and finished 12-5 — good enough for the AFC’s No. 5 seed after Jacksonville won the AFC South. It was Houston’s third straight playoff berth, a franchise first, and made the Texans the fifth team since 1990 to reach the postseason after starting 0-3 in the same season, and the first franchise to pull it off twice. Along the way, the defense set franchise records for points and yards allowed per game (17.3 and 277.2, respectively) and sacked Josh Allen eight times in a single game, also a franchise record.
The playoff run itself had real highs and a hard ending. Houston beat Pittsburgh 30-6 in the Wild Card round for the franchise’s first-ever road playoff win, then fell 28-16 to New England in the Divisional Round after C.J. Stroud threw four interceptions in the first half. The offensive struggles in that loss weren’t a one-game blip — they were part of why the front office moved on from offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and offensive line coach Chris Strausser once the season ended.
Offseason Moves
The biggest storyline of Houston’s offseason was protecting Stroud. After firing Slowik, the Texans hired former Rams tight ends coach Nick Caley as offensive coordinator and promoted Cole Popovich to oversee the offensive line and run game. On the roster side, Houston traded away right tackle Tytus Howard to Cleveland in February, then rebuilt the position from scratch in free agency, signing veteran tackle Braden Smith and guard Wyatt Teller, plus center/guard depth in Evan Brown. The team doubled down in the draft, taking Georgia Tech guard Keylan Rutledge in the first round and Oklahoma’s Febechi Nwaiwu on Day 3 — a clear, sustained investment in the group tasked with keeping Stroud upright.
Houston also addressed the backfield, trading for running back David Montgomery from Detroit (sending offensive lineman Juice Scruggs and draft capital the other way) to pair with the returning group and give the offense a more physical, between-the-tackles complement to the passing game. Tight end Foster Moreau and receiver Lewis Bond (a Day 3 pick out of Boston College) add depth to the pass-catching group as well.
On defense, the Texans kept their foundation intact and added to it. Star edge rusher Danielle Hunter signed a one-year, $40.1 million extension in March, and the team also re-signed Trent Brown, Ed Ingram, Dalton Schultz, E.J. Speed, and M.J. Stewart to extensions. New additions Logan Hall and Dominique Robinson bolster the defensive front, while safety Reed Blankenship and linebacker Jake Hummel add secondary and front-seven depth. Second-round pick Kayden McDonald, a run-stuffing defensive tackle out of Ohio State, was one of two players Houston traded up to acquire on Day 2 — a sign of how much value the front office places on that defensive identity.
2026 Season Outlook
Houston’s schedule is front-loaded with manageable matchups and back-loaded with real danger. The first seven weeks bring the Bills, Bengals, Colts, Cowboys, Titans, a London trip against Jacksonville, and the Giants, before the Week 8 bye — a slate that gives a retooled offensive line time to gel. The back half is a different story. Weeks 12 through 17 form what looks like the season’s defining stretch: Ravens, at Steelers (Sunday night), at Commanders, Jaguars, at Eagles (Thursday night), and at Packers (Monday night) — four of six on the road, three in primetime, and four opponents that were either in last year’s playoff field or are widely projected for nine-plus wins in 2026. How Houston holds up in that gauntlet will likely decide whether this is a division-winning team or a Wild Card team again.
Our Team’s Projection
We’re projecting the Texans at 10-7 for 2026. Houston’s win total currently sits at 9.5, and our number leans toward the over — the reasoning cuts in a few different directions worth laying out honestly.
The case for the over starts with continuity and investment: Houston kept two of the league’s highest-graded edge defenders in Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., extended several core defensive pieces, and poured real resources — free agency dollars and a first-round pick — into fixing the offensive line that broke down in the playoff loss to New England. Adding Montgomery gives the offense a run-game option that could ease the burden on Stroud, whose performance dipped over the past two seasons. A softer first seven weeks also gives this team a chance to build a cushion before the tougher stretch arrives.
The under case carries just as much weight. Stroud’s decline in advanced metrics over the last two years is a legitimate concern that new coaching and better protection may or may not fix quickly, and the Weeks 12-17 stretch is genuinely brutal — four road games, three primetime windows, and a run of opponents that project as playoff-caliber. If the offensive line rebuild takes time to jell or Stroud’s turnover issues resurface against that level of competition, a step back toward .500 is a real possibility. For a deeper look at how to think through a bet like this one, our team broke down how season win totals actually work in our Bet Smarter series — worth a read before settling on a number for Houston.
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