The Las Vegas Raiders are betting on a full reset in 2026 — new head coach, new quarterback room, and the No. 1 overall pick in the fold. After a brutal 2025, this is a team our team sees as genuinely more competitive on paper, even if the record hasn’t caught up yet.
2025 Season Recap
Las Vegas finished 2025 at 3-14, last in the AFC West for the second consecutive season. Head coach Pete Carroll was let go after just one year on the job — the third straight season the Raiders fired their head coach — and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly was dismissed in late November, with quarterbacks coach Greg Olson taking over play-calling duties. Geno Smith struggled behind an inconsistent offense, throwing for 3,025 yards with 19 touchdowns against an NFL-leading 17 interceptions. The Raiders lost 10 games in a row at one stretch before finally snapping the skid against Kansas City in Week 18, went winless on the road against division opponents, and scored an NFL-worst 241 points on the season, getting shut out twice along the way.
There was a silver lining to the losing, though: the 3-14 finish landed Las Vegas the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 draft for the first time since 2007 — the foundation for the offseason that followed.
Offseason Moves
The headline hire is head coach Klint Kubiak, who arrives fresh off a Super Bowl win as the Seahawks’ offensive coordinator. Rob Leonard was promoted from defensive line coach to defensive coordinator, while general manager John Spytek — who took over last year — stayed on and, by most accounts, had one of the more productive offseasons in the league.
At quarterback, the Raiders moved on from Geno Smith, trading him (along with a 2026 seventh-round pick) to the New York Jets in March for a sixth-round selection. In his place, Las Vegas used the No. 1 overall pick on Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, then added veteran Kirk Cousins in free agency to mentor him — a deal reported at five years and $172 million on paper, but structured as closer to a one-year, fully guaranteed $20 million contract with a club option, giving the team flexibility around Mendoza’s timeline.
Spytek was aggressive rebuilding the roster around them. Up front, the Raiders signed center Tyler Linderbaum to a three-year, $81 million deal ($60 million guaranteed) to anchor the offensive line ahead of their rookie quarterback. On defense, they added linebackers Quay Walker (three years, $40.5 million) and Nakobe Dean, edge rusher Kwity Paye (three years, $48 million), and defensive lineman Malcolm Koonce back on a one-year deal, plus cornerback Eric Stokes (three years, $30 million) in a reunion and Taron Johnson via trade with Buffalo. Receiver Jalen Nailor was added on a three-year, $35 million deal, and Matt Gay takes over kicking duties.
2026 Season Outlook
Las Vegas opens as a favorite against Miami in Week 1, but the schedule is genuinely one of the league’s toughest from there — by most measures the seventh-hardest slate in the NFL, featuring two games apiece against division rivals like the Chiefs and Broncos, plus a stretch against the 49ers, Seahawks, and Broncos in consecutive weeks before the Raiders finally get their bye in Week 13. There are some winnable spots mixed in, particularly against the Titans and Cardinals later in the year, but this is a demanding schedule for a team still finding its footing under a first-year coaching staff. Health and depth are the other watch items: receiver depth remains thin, and Maxx Crosby’s availability is something our team is watching closely given his importance to this defense.
Our Team’s Projection
We’re projecting Las Vegas at 7-10 for 2026. That’s still a losing season, but it’s a real step forward from 3-14, and it leans toward the over on the Raiders’ current win total of 5.5 (Over -146, Under +120). For more on how these lines get set and why they move, check out our Bet Smarter breakdown on season win totals.
The case for the over starts with the coaching and roster turnover: Kubiak brings a Super Bowl pedigree and a track record of getting more out of an offense, the offensive line is markedly better with Linderbaum in the middle, and Cousins gives this team a competent bridge option who won’t turn the ball over like Smith did in 2025 while Mendoza develops behind him. A handful of genuinely winnable games late in the schedule, against the Titans and Cardinals, give this team a real path to clear a low bar even with a tough overall slate. The case for the under is just as real, though — this is one of the harder schedules in football for a team breaking in a rookie quarterback and a first-year coaching staff, receiver depth is a legitimate question mark, and any extended absence from Crosby would hurt a defense still finding its footing under a first-year coordinator. Betting a rebuilding team’s win total always comes down to weighing real structural improvement against a genuinely hard schedule, and that’s exactly the tension here.