Quick housekeeping up top: this week’s cadence run hit a real snag on our end — the working
session that normally carries this update forward lost its local files and had to rebuild this
week’s picture from the live site itself plus fresh research. Worth saying plainly since it’s
your money on the line: nothing about your Splash Sports
entries changed as a result — Week 1 is exactly what it was last week, and the rebuild is
cross-checked against everything we’ve published since July 23. One real number moved this week,
for a genuine on-field reason, and it’s below.
What Changed This Week
- Micah Parsons (Green Bay) confirmed he’s targeting Week 6 for his return
from the ACL/meniscus procedure — not sooner. Green Bay is Entry B’s second pick in the Week 3
double (a real, scheduled matchup vs. Atlanta). Missing your best defender is a real downgrade
for that specific game. More on this below — it’s the one actual number change this week. - Rashawn Slater (Chargers) has now missed three straight practices; no
setback in his patellar tendon recovery has been reported, and no reason beyond an initial
“veteran rest” day has been disclosed. Chargers aren’t in play until Entry C’s Week 11 and Entry
A’s Week 16 — not urgent, but on the watch list. - Jacksonville’s offensive line picked up real camp injuries (Little, Edoga,
Mekari, Van Lanen all banged up). Offsetting that: Cleveland still hasn’t named a Week 1 starter
between Shedeur Sanders and Deshaun Watson. The market gap still clearly favors Jacksonville. - Cade Mays, Detroit’s starting center, is confirmed out 8-10 weeks with a
wrist injury. Detroit is Entry C’s second Week 3 pick (vs. the Jets) — a real O-line downgrade,
partially offset by New Orleans separately losing DT Bryan Bresee for the season, though that
doesn’t directly touch this specific game.
Week 1: Still Locked, Here’s Why
Entry C: Jacksonville
Jaguars (home vs. Cleveland, 81%) — the offensive-line injuries are real, but Cleveland’s
own unresolved quarterback competition and the size of the market gap keep this the right pick.
The alternative we keep coming back to is Detroit (currently the stronger number on paper before
you account for team allocation) — but Detroit is doing more good in Week 3’s double-pick slot
for this same entry, and spending it here would mean scrambling to replace it there.
Entry B: Tennessee Titans
(home vs. NY Jets, 65%) — a different game from Entry C’s, on purpose, so one upset doesn’t touch
both entries. Pittsburgh graded close to even here statistically; Tennessee’s home spot against a
rebuilding Jets team is still the cleaner read.
Entry A: Las Vegas Raiders
(home vs. Miami, 69%) — the lowest number of the three Week 1 picks on paper, and deliberately so:
this is the trade that keeps the Chargers, Lions and Eagles available for the Week 12-16
gauntlet instead of cashing them in here. Worth flagging given this week’s news: Las Vegas’
Week 16 matchup (hosting Tennessee) is now looking like better long-term value than it did in
July, since Tennessee travels to Las Vegas in what’s shaping up as the season’s toughest
double-pick week. Entry A already spent Las Vegas in Week 1, and we’re not undoing that call —
but Entries B and C still have Las Vegas in the bank, and that Week 16 matchup is now a real
option to hold in reserve for one of them rather than assuming it’s only useful early.
The One Real Change: Green Bay’s Week 3 Number
Entry B’s Week 3 double currently
pairs the New York Giants with Green Bay at home against Atlanta. That Packers pick was modeled
at 76% two weeks ago. With Parsons now confirmed out until Week 6, we’re taking that down to
66% — a real discount, not a rounding error.
What we considered instead of just discounting it: San Francisco and Kansas City both grade
well in Week 3, but both are already committed elsewhere that week (Entry A has San Francisco,
Entry C has Kansas City) — using either for Entry B would mean unwinding two picks to fix one,
and neither of those two entries’ Week 3 games is the problem. We also don’t have real Week 3
lines yet — kickoff is a month away, and Week 3 is three weeks past that — so any swap right now
would be trading a confirmed, verified discount for a guess. The honest move is to flag it,
carry the lower number, and revisit this specific slot with real information as Week 3 actually
approaches, the same way we corrected the Week 11 sequencing issue back in July rather than
guessing at a fix in the moment.
Other Watch Items
Detroit’s Week 3 slot (Entry C, vs.
NYJ) is the next-closest thing to an actual change. Cade Mays’ 8-10 week timeline is a
real O-line hit, and unlike Green Bay we’re not cutting the number yet — Detroit’s market edge
over the Jets is still large enough to absorb it, and New Orleans’ own defensive-line injuries
(Bresee) take a little heat off the Lions’ offense in general, if not in this specific matchup.
This is the one to watch closest heading into September.
Nothing else this week rises to the level of an actual number change. Slater and the Jacksonville
line are real, but neither is close enough to a live pick to act on yet — both get revisited the
moment either team’s Week 1-3 usage gets closer, or if either situation gets materially worse.
The Full 18-Week Roadmap
Same format as always: all three entries, all 18 weeks, double-pick weeks highlighted, with
modeled cumulative survival odds per entry in the last column (illustrative, not predictive —
team strength this far out is a preseason estimate, not real lines). The Week 3 Entry B column
reflects this week’s Green Bay revision; every other cell is unchanged from August 4.
| Wk | Type | Entry A | Entry B | Entry C | A / B / C Survival |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | single | Las Vegas Raiders (vs Miami Dolphins, 69%) | Tennessee Titans (vs New York Jets, 65%) | Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Cleveland Browns, 81%) | 69.0% / 65.0% / 81.0% |
| 2 | single | Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs Cleveland Browns, 74%) | Los Angeles Chargers (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 84%) | Atlanta Falcons (vs Carolina Panthers, 61%) | 51.1% / 54.6% / 49.4% |
| 3 | DOUBLE | New Orleans Saints (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 72%) San Francisco 49ers (vs Arizona Cardinals, 89%) |
New York Giants (vs Tennessee Titans, 66%) Green Bay Packers (vs Atlanta Falcons, 66%) |
Detroit Lions (vs New York Jets, 88%) Kansas City Chiefs (@Miami Dolphins, 81%) |
32.7% / 23.8% / 35.2% |
| 4 | single | Minnesota Vikings (vs Miami Dolphins, 84%) | Chicago Bears (vs New York Jets, 82%) | New York Giants (vs Arizona Cardinals, 79%) | 27.5% / 19.5% / 27.8% |
| 5 | single | Cincinnati Bengals (@Miami Dolphins, 79%) | New England Patriots (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 84%) | Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Indianapolis Colts, 63%) | 21.7% / 16.4% / 17.5% |
| 6 | DOUBLE | New England Patriots (vs New York Jets, 85%) Los Angeles Rams (vs Arizona Cardinals, 93%) |
Philadelphia Eagles (vs Carolina Panthers, 79%) Indianapolis Colts (vs Tennessee Titans, 68%) |
Buffalo Bills (@Las Vegas Raiders, 79%) Baltimore Ravens (@Cleveland Browns, 77%) |
17.2% / 8.8% / 10.7% |
| 7 | single | New York Jets (vs Miami Dolphins, 67%) | Houston Texans (vs New York Giants, 76%) | Tennessee Titans (vs Cleveland Browns, 61%) | 11.5% / 6.7% / 6.5% |
| 8 | single | Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Cleveland Browns, 74%) | Dallas Cowboys (vs Arizona Cardinals, 86%) | Green Bay Packers (vs Carolina Panthers, 78%) | 8.5% / 5.8% / 5.1% |
| 9 | DOUBLE | Seattle Seahawks (vs Arizona Cardinals, 92%) Kansas City Chiefs (vs New York Jets, 85%) |
Detroit Lions (@Miami Dolphins, 85%) San Francisco 49ers (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 84%) |
Chicago Bears (vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 64%) New Orleans Saints (vs Cleveland Browns, 70%) |
6.7% / 4.1% / 2.3% |
| 10 | single | Indianapolis Colts (vs Miami Dolphins, 81%) | Los Angeles Rams (@Arizona Cardinals, 87%) | Houston Texans (@Cleveland Browns, 71%) | 5.4% / 3.6% / 1.6% |
| 11 | single | Dallas Cowboys (vs Tennessee Titans, 76%) | Kansas City Chiefs (vs Arizona Cardinals, 89%) | Los Angeles Chargers (vs New York Jets, 86%) | 4.1% / 3.2% / 1.4% |
| 12 | DOUBLE | Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Tennessee Titans, 79%) Washington Commanders (@Arizona Cardinals, 68%) |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs Carolina Panthers, 68%) Cleveland Browns (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 60%) |
Cincinnati Bengals (vs New Orleans Saints, 71%) Indianapolis Colts (vs New York Giants, 61%) |
2.2% / 1.3% / 0.6% |
| 13 | DOUBLE | Denver Broncos (vs Miami Dolphins, 89%) Philadelphia Eagles (@Arizona Cardinals, 82%) |
Minnesota Vikings (vs Carolina Panthers, 69%) Cincinnati Bengals (@Cleveland Browns, 68%) |
Washington Commanders (@Tennessee Titans, 52%) Seattle Seahawks (vs Dallas Cowboys, 74%) |
1.6% / 0.6% / 0.2% |
| 14 | DOUBLE | Chicago Bears (@Miami Dolphins, 78%) Detroit Lions (vs Tennessee Titans, 85%) |
Baltimore Ravens (vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 76%) Seattle Seahawks (vs New York Giants, 82%) |
Denver Broncos (@New York Jets, 75%) Philadelphia Eagles (vs Indianapolis Colts, 75%) |
1.1% / 0.4% / 0.1% |
| 15 | DOUBLE | Green Bay Packers (vs Miami Dolphins, 90%) New York Giants (vs Cleveland Browns, 68%) |
Denver Broncos (@Las Vegas Raiders, 72%) Washington Commanders (vs Atlanta Falcons, 61%) |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs New Orleans Saints, 63%) Los Angeles Rams (vs Dallas Cowboys, 75%) |
0.7% / 0.2% / 0.1% |
| 16 | DOUBLE | Baltimore Ravens (vs Cleveland Browns, 87%) Los Angeles Chargers (@Miami Dolphins, 82%) |
New Orleans Saints (vs Arizona Cardinals, 81%) Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Carolina Panthers, 68%) |
New England Patriots (@New York Jets, 75%) Minnesota Vikings (vs Washington Commanders, 64%) |
0.5% / 0.1% / 0.0% |
| 17 | single | Buffalo Bills (@Miami Dolphins, 86%) | Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Washington Commanders, 71%) | Dallas Cowboys (vs New York Giants, 69%) | 0.4% / 0.1% / 0.0% |
| 18 | single | Houston Texans (vs Tennessee Titans, 81%) | Buffalo Bills (vs New York Jets, 89%) | San Francisco 49ers (@Arizona Cardinals, 81%) | 0.3% / 0.1% / 0.0% |
As always: treat Weeks 1-3 as the most actionable picks. Everything past Week 4 is a
sequencing plan — which team is earmarked for which slot — that gets rewritten as camp battles
resolve and real lines post.
What’s Next
Back on the regular weekly cadence through Splash Sports‘
Big Splash kickoff on September 9 and the season after. Green Bay’s Week 3 number and Detroit’s
Week 3 O-line situation are both live watch items between now and then — if either resolves
cleanly or gets worse, that’s worth its own note before it locks.