The Miami Dolphins enter 2026 in a genuine teardown, not a tweak. A new coaching staff, a new quarterback, and a receiving corps that’s been almost entirely rebuilt make this one of the more unpredictable previews in this series — here’s our team’s full breakdown of where things stand.
2025 Season Recap
Miami finished 2025 at 7-10, third in the AFC East and out of the playoffs for a second straight year, extending the franchise’s playoff win drought to 25 seasons. The season had real turbulence built in: general manager Chris Grier parted ways with the organization on October 31 following a Week 9 loss to Baltimore, with Champ Kelly stepping in as interim GM and going 5-3 down the stretch. Head coach Mike McDaniel was fired once the season wrapped, on January 8.
On the field, the Dolphins opened 1-6 before ripping off five wins in six games to briefly get back into the playoff picture, only to be eliminated after a Week 15 loss to Pittsburgh. Tua Tagovailoa struggled for much of the year and was benched ahead of Week 16 in favor of rookie Quinn Ewers, and Tyreek Hill’s season ended with a knee injury in Week 4. A 5-4 home record against a 2-6 mark on the road tells most of the story of why this team missed the postseason. Linebacker Jordyn Brooks earned First-team All-Pro honors and running back De’Von Achane made the Pro Bowl, two individual bright spots in an otherwise disappointing year.
Offseason Moves
Miami hired Jeff Hafley, the Green Bay Packers’ defensive coordinator the past two seasons, to a five-year deal as head coach. Hafley arrives alongside new general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan, with whom he overlapped in Green Bay, and becomes the eighth consecutive Dolphins head coach with no prior NFL head-coaching experience.
The quarterback room got a full reset. Tua Tagovailoa was released, and Miami signed Malik Willis to a three-year, $67.5 million contract to take over as the starter — a notable bet on a passer with only 209 career NFL dropbacks, even after he impressed late last season. The receiving corps changed just as dramatically: Tyreek Hill was released as part of Miami’s cost-saving roster moves following his knee injury, tight end Darren Waller left in free agency, and Jaylen Waddle was traded to the Denver Broncos in a deal that brought back Denver’s 2026 first-round pick along with additional draft capital. To help replace that production, Miami added receivers Jalen Tolbert and Tutu Atwell in free agency, along with edge rusher Josh Uche and offensive linemen Charlie Heck and Jamaree Salyer.
With two first-round picks in hand, Miami used them on the offensive and defensive lines: guard Kadyn Proctor out of Alabama at No. 12 overall, and cornerback Chris Johnson out of San Diego State at No. 27 overall. The Dolphins also used several of their thirteen total picks on receivers, directly addressing the hole left by the Hill and Waddle departures.
2026 Season Outlook
By Warren Sharp’s strength-of-schedule formula, Miami faces the second-toughest schedule in the league this season, trailing only Arizona. Nine of the Dolphins’ fourteen non-division opponents finished 2025 with winning records, and the slate includes three games against this past season’s AFC Championship Game participants — the Patriots, with Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel, and the Broncos, who added Waddle to an already strong receiving corps off a 14-win season. By at least one outside projection, Miami is favored in only one game on the schedule.
That combination — a rebuilding roster, a first-year coaching staff, and a schedule with almost no easy weeks — sets up a difficult season on paper, even accounting for the individual talent still on the roster in players like Achane and Brooks.
Our Team’s Projection
We’re projecting Miami at 4-13 for 2026. The defense finished 27th in the league against the pass a year ago and now has to break in a new coordinator’s scheme, while the offense is trusting a bridge-caliber quarterback with a mostly rebuilt receiving room behind a line that’s also adjusting to a new starter at guard. Those are a lot of moving pieces for a first-year staff to sort out against one of the league’s toughest schedules.
The Dolphins’ season win total sits at 4.5, with the over priced at +122 and the under at -146. Our projection of 4-13 leans toward the under. The case for the over centers on Miami’s track record — this franchise has cleared 4.5 wins in all but two seasons since the merger — and on the argument that Achane’s explosiveness plus Hafley’s defensive background could steal a handful of close games even in a down year. The case for the under is the sheer weight of change: a new quarterback with a thin resume, a receiving corps built almost entirely from outside additions, and a schedule that offers very few soft spots to bank a win. For more on how these markets work, see our breakdown on how season win totals actually work. When this many variables are unproven at once, our team leans toward the tougher path playing out.