Few teams walked away from 2025 with a more painful “what could have been” than the Indianapolis Colts, and 2026 arrives with a real question hanging over the building: was last year’s collapse a blip, or a preview of who this team actually is? Our team dug into the moves, the schedule, and the number Vegas has posted to find out.
2025 Season Recap
Indianapolis opened 2025 about as well as a team can open a season, racing out to an 8-2 record behind a Daniel Jones-led offense that looked like the best version of itself in years. Then it all came apart. The Colts lost seven straight games after the bye, finished 8-9, and became the first team in NFL history to start 8-2 and finish with a losing record. Seven of their eight losses were decided by one score or less, which is either a sign of brutal bad luck or a sign of a team that couldn’t finish — our team suspects it was some of both. It was enough to miss the playoffs for a fifth straight year, and it came against the backdrop of real tragedy off the field: longtime owner Jim Irsay passed away in May, with ownership passing to his three daughters.
Jones’ season ended early with a torn Achilles in Week 14, forcing Indianapolis to sign 44-year-old Philip Rivers off the street to close out the year. Even in a lost season, Jonathan Taylor kept piling up production, breaking the franchise’s all-time rushing touchdown record along the way — a reminder of why the run game remains this roster’s foundation heading into 2026.
Offseason Moves
Continuity was the theme on the sideline: Shane Steichen returns for a fourth season as head coach, with Jim Bob Cooter and Lou Anarumo staying on as offensive and defensive coordinators. The bigger story was what general manager Chris Ballard did to the roster — headlined by a genuine blockbuster. Indianapolis sent two first-round picks (2026 and 2027) and receiver Adonai Mitchell to the Jets for cornerback Sauce Gardner, an aggressive bet that a shutdown corner opposite a suddenly deeper front seven can be the difference in a division race.
That trade meant the Colts entered the draft without their first-round pick, so their class started at No. 53 with Georgia linebacker CJ Allen, followed by defensive back A.J. Haulcy and a run of developmental defensive pieces — linebacker Bryce Boettcher (Oregon), edge rushers George Gumbs Jr. (Florida) and Caden Curry (Ohio State), plus late-round skill additions in running back Seth McGowan (Kentucky) and receiver Deion Burks (Oklahoma).
Free agency cut both ways. Indianapolis added pass-rush and depth pieces in Arden Key, Micheal Clemons, and Jerry Tillery, plus secondary help in Cam Taylor-Britt, while re-signing Jones himself along with receiver Alec Pierce and tight end Mo Alie-Cox. On the other side of the ledger, the Colts lost several familiar contributors — pass rusher Kwity Paye, linebacker Zaire Franklin (traded to Green Bay for defensive lineman Colby Wooden), safety Nick Cross, and, notably, top receiver Michael Pittman, who was traded to Pittsburgh. That last move leaves real questions about who steps up as Jones’ top target.
2026 Season Outlook
The headline entering camp is Jones’ recovery from that Achilles tear. Coaches have described him as “a little ahead of schedule,” and he’s ticketed to be the unquestioned Week 1 starter against Baltimore on September 13th, with Anthony Richardson and rookie Riley Leonard competing behind him for the backup job. Health at that position is everything for this team’s ceiling.
The schedule does this roster no favors early. Indianapolis opens with the Ravens, Chiefs, and Texans — three teams that project as legitimate playoff contenders — before the slate settles into a more manageable stretch. How the Colts hold up through that opening gauntlet, especially with Jones working his way back from a major injury and a retooled receiver room around him, will say a lot about where this season ultimately lands.
Our Team’s Projection
We’re projecting Indianapolis at 8-9 for 2026 — a step sideways from last year’s finish, not a full-blown collapse, but not the leap back to relevance the front office is hoping the Gardner trade buys them either.
The Colts’ season win total currently sits at 7.5, and our projection leans toward the under. The case for the under starts with a brutal opening stretch landing right when Jones is easing back into game action from a serious injury, compounded by a receiver room that lost its clear No. 1 option in Pittman with no obvious replacement added. The over side has real merit too: Steichen’s offenses have found at least eight wins in each of his three seasons as head coach, Jonathan Taylor remains one of the more reliable workhorse backs in the league, and Gardner instantly upgrades a defense that could keep games close even while the passing game sorts itself out. As we laid out in our breakdown of how season win totals actually work, these numbers are a price, not a prediction — and this one comes down to a favorable coaching track record squaring off against a genuinely difficult first two months.