The Carolina Panthers pulled off one of the more improbable turnarounds in recent memory in 2025, and now comes the harder part: proving it wasn’t a one-year fluke against what might be the toughest schedule in the NFC. Here’s our team’s full breakdown of where things stand heading into 2026.
2025 Season Recap
Carolina finished 2025 at 8-9, and on paper that’s a losing record. In practice, it was enough to win the NFC South — the franchise’s first division title since 2015 and first playoff appearance since 2017. It also made the Panthers the first team in NFL history to win two division titles with a losing record. Carolina backed into the postseason on the strength of two signature wins: a 31-28 upset of the then NFC-leading Rams in Week 13, and a 30-27 overtime escape against Atlanta in Week 11 that kept the playoff push alive. The season ended in the Wild Card round, a 34-31 home loss to the Rams in a rematch that went the other way.
Individually, there was plenty to like. Rookie receiver Tetairoa McMillan won Offensive Rookie of the Year after catching 70 passes for 1,014 yards and seven touchdowns. Quarterback Bryce Young set a franchise passing record with 448 yards in that Atlanta win, and running back Rico Dowdle put up a franchise-record 239 yards from scrimmage against Dallas. Head coach Dave Canales and GM Dan Morgan both stayed in place after the surprise run, which says a lot about how the organization views the trajectory here.
Offseason Moves
Carolina’s offseason priority was obvious: fix a pass rush that GM Dan Morgan flatly called “not acceptable” in 2025. The team responded by committing real money to it, signing edge rusher Jaelan Phillips away from Philadelphia on a four-year, $120 million deal ($80 million guaranteed) and adding linebacker Devin Lloyd from Jacksonville on a three-year, $45 million contract. The Panthers doubled down on the front seven in the draft too, trading up with Minnesota to grab Texas Tech defensive tackle Lee Hunter in the second round after taking Georgia offensive tackle Monroe Freeling with the 19th overall pick.
On offense, the headline addition is quarterback Kenny Pickett, who signed a modest one-year deal to serve as Bryce Young’s primary backup. The line got reinforcements in center Luke Fortner and tackles Rasheed Walker and Stone Forsythe, while receiver John Metchie III — a former Alabama teammate of Young’s — joins the receiving corps and veteran AJ Dillon adds depth behind Chuba Hubbard.
The roster did lose some pieces from last year’s surprise run. Rico Dowdle left for Pittsburgh, center Cade Mays signed with Detroit, tackle Austin Corbett went to Buffalo, and linebacker Christian Rozeboom departed for Tampa Bay. None of those are the kind of losses that typically sink a team, but replacing productive depth pieces while integrating this many new starters is real work for a coaching staff that hasn’t had to do much roster reshuffling the past two years.
2026 Season Outlook
The schedule is the story here. Carolina drew the NFL’s third-toughest slate by opponent win total, with 10 of its 11 non-division games coming against teams projected at 9.5 wins or more, and six opponents that made last season’s playoffs, including division winners Denver and Seattle. The reward for last year’s success shows up in scheduling prominence — three primetime games, the most since 2016, including a Sunday Night Football home date with Detroit in Week 4 — but the matchups themselves are unforgiving. There is some structural relief: an early Week 5 bye, no stretch longer than two consecutive road games, and a closing run where four of the last five games are at Bank of America Stadium, bookended by a Week 1 home opener against Chicago and a Week 18 finale against Atlanta.
Our Team’s Projection
We’re projecting Carolina at 7-10 for 2026. The Panthers’ current season win total sits at 7.5 (over +110 / under -130 at market), and our number leans toward the under.
The case for the under starts with how Carolina actually won games in 2025. The Panthers went 6-2 in one-score games and, by point differential, played more like a 6.9-win team than an 8-9 one — that kind of close-game success is historically hard to repeat. Add an offense that finished 25th in DVOA and a schedule that’s genuinely one of the toughest in the league, and it’s easy to see this team taking a step back in the win column even if the underlying roster is better.
The case for the over leans on the moves Carolina actually made. Investing real money in Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd directly targets last year’s biggest weakness, McMillan and Young give this offense a young core that should keep improving, and the schedule’s favorable shape late — a home-heavy closing stretch after the toughest part is over — gives Carolina a real chance to bank wins when it matters. For readers looking to understand how a number like 7.5 gets set and why schedule shape matters as much as it does here, our Bet Smarter breakdown on how season win totals actually work is a good primer before putting anything down. Carolina’s NFC South rival in our Atlanta Falcons preview faces a similar step-up-or-regress question this year, for what it’s worth.