Quick housekeeping note up top: last week’s cadence had a gap, so this post covers what changed both since our last full update and in the last few days, and folds in a couple of real camp moves worth knowing about before we lock anything in for real.
What’s Actually Changed
- Arizona released Kyler Murray; Jacoby Brissett is starting under a restructured deal. Arizona was already our model’s weakest team by a clear margin — this reinforces it as one of the most reliable opponents on the board all season.
- The Rams traded for Myles Garrett, adding a genuine difference-maker to a defense on a roster that was already our top-rated team. That’s another reason the Rams stay parked until Weeks 12+ in the plan below rather than getting spent early.
- The Eagles extended DT Jalen Carter — a stabilizing move for a team already graded upper-tier.
- Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield still doesn’t have a new deal — worth watching, not yet worth reacting to.
None of this flips the board. Nothing changes about our Week 1-3 picks. The season’s strongest teams by our model (Rams, Seahawks, Bills, Ravens, Lions) and weakest (Cardinals, Dolphins, Jets, Raiders, Browns, Titans) are the same names as before — just with more confirmation behind them now.
The Full 18-Week Roadmap
Same format as always: all three entries, all 18 weeks, double-pick weeks highlighted, with modeled cumulative survival odds per entry in the last column (illustrative, not predictive — team strength this far out is a preseason estimate, not real lines).
| Wk | Type | Entry A | Entry B | Entry C | A / B / C Survival |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | single | Las Vegas Raiders (vs Miami Dolphins, 69%) | Tennessee Titans (vs New York Jets, 65%) | Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Cleveland Browns, 81%) | 69.3% / 65.4% / 80.8% |
| 2 | single | Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs Cleveland Browns, 74%) | Los Angeles Chargers (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 84%) | Atlanta Falcons (vs Carolina Panthers, 61%) | 51.6% / 55.0% / 49.2% |
| 3 | DOUBLE | New Orleans Saints (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 72%) San Francisco 49ers (vs Arizona Cardinals, 89%) |
New York Giants (vs Tennessee Titans, 66%) Green Bay Packers (vs Atlanta Falcons, 76%) |
Detroit Lions (vs New York Jets, 88%) Kansas City Chiefs (@Miami Dolphins, 81%) |
33.1% / 27.6% / 35.1% |
| 4 | single | Minnesota Vikings (vs Miami Dolphins, 84%) | Chicago Bears (vs New York Jets, 82%) | New York Giants (vs Arizona Cardinals, 79%) | 27.8% / 22.7% / 27.7% |
| 5 | single | Cincinnati Bengals (@Miami Dolphins, 79%) | New England Patriots (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 84%) | Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Indianapolis Colts, 63%) | 22.0% / 19.0% / 17.4% |
| 6 | DOUBLE | New England Patriots (vs New York Jets, 85%) Los Angeles Rams (vs Arizona Cardinals, 93%) |
Philadelphia Eagles (vs Carolina Panthers, 79%) Indianapolis Colts (vs Tennessee Titans, 68%) |
Buffalo Bills (@Las Vegas Raiders, 79%) Baltimore Ravens (@Cleveland Browns, 77%) |
17.4% / 10.2% / 10.6% |
| 7 | single | New York Jets (vs Miami Dolphins, 67%) | Houston Texans (vs New York Giants, 76%) | Tennessee Titans (vs Cleveland Browns, 61%) | 11.6% / 7.8% / 6.4% |
| 8 | single | Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Cleveland Browns, 74%) | Dallas Cowboys (vs Arizona Cardinals, 86%) | Green Bay Packers (vs Carolina Panthers, 78%) | 8.6% / 6.7% / 5.0% |
| 9 | DOUBLE | Seattle Seahawks (vs Arizona Cardinals, 92%) Kansas City Chiefs (vs New York Jets, 85%) |
Detroit Lions (@Miami Dolphins, 85%) San Francisco 49ers (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 84%) |
Chicago Bears (vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 64%) New Orleans Saints (vs Cleveland Browns, 70%) |
6.7% / 4.8% / 2.3% |
| 10 | single | Indianapolis Colts (vs Miami Dolphins, 81%) | Los Angeles Rams (@Arizona Cardinals, 87%) | Houston Texans (@Cleveland Browns, 71%) | 5.4% / 4.1% / 1.6% |
| 11 | single | Dallas Cowboys (vs Tennessee Titans, 76%) | Kansas City Chiefs (vs Arizona Cardinals, 89%) | Los Angeles Chargers (vs New York Jets, 86%) | 4.1% / 3.7% / 1.4% |
| 12 | DOUBLE | Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Tennessee Titans, 79%) Washington Commanders (@Arizona Cardinals, 68%) |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs Carolina Panthers, 68%) Cleveland Browns (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 60%) |
Cincinnati Bengals (vs New Orleans Saints, 71%) Indianapolis Colts (vs New York Giants, 61%) |
2.2% / 1.5% / 0.6% |
| 13 | DOUBLE | Denver Broncos (vs Miami Dolphins, 89%) Philadelphia Eagles (@Arizona Cardinals, 82%) |
Minnesota Vikings (vs Carolina Panthers, 69%) Cincinnati Bengals (@Cleveland Browns, 68%) |
Washington Commanders (@Tennessee Titans, 52%) Seattle Seahawks (vs Dallas Cowboys, 74%) |
1.6% / 0.7% / 0.2% |
| 14 | DOUBLE | Chicago Bears (@Miami Dolphins, 78%) Detroit Lions (vs Tennessee Titans, 85%) |
Baltimore Ravens (vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 76%) Seattle Seahawks (vs New York Giants, 82%) |
Denver Broncos (@New York Jets, 75%) Philadelphia Eagles (vs Indianapolis Colts, 75%) |
1.1% / 0.4% / 0.1% |
| 15 | DOUBLE | Green Bay Packers (vs Miami Dolphins, 90%) New York Giants (vs Cleveland Browns, 68%) |
Denver Broncos (@Las Vegas Raiders, 72%) Washington Commanders (vs Atlanta Falcons, 61%) |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs New Orleans Saints, 63%) Los Angeles Rams (vs Dallas Cowboys, 75%) |
0.7% / 0.2% / 0.1% |
| 16 | DOUBLE | Baltimore Ravens (vs Cleveland Browns, 87%) Los Angeles Chargers (@Miami Dolphins, 82%) |
New Orleans Saints (vs Arizona Cardinals, 81%) Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Carolina Panthers, 68%) |
New England Patriots (@New York Jets, 75%) Minnesota Vikings (vs Washington Commanders, 64%) |
0.5% / 0.1% / 0.0% |
| 17 | single | Buffalo Bills (@Miami Dolphins, 86%) | Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Washington Commanders, 71%) | Dallas Cowboys (vs New York Giants, 69%) | 0.4% / 0.1% / 0.0% |
| 18 | single | Houston Texans (vs Tennessee Titans, 81%) | Buffalo Bills (vs New York Jets, 89%) | San Francisco 49ers (@Arizona Cardinals, 81%) | 0.3% / 0.1% / 0.0% |
As always: treat Weeks 1-3 as the most actionable picks. Everything past Week 4 is a sequencing plan — which team is earmarked for which slot — that gets rewritten as camp battles resolve and real lines post.
What’s Next
Back on the regular weekly cadence from here through Splash Sports‘ Big Splash kickoff on September 9 and the whole season after. If a week ever goes quiet again, that’s worth a nudge — it shouldn’t happen, but worth knowing it’s not a “no news” situation if it does.