Week 1 picks lock this Sunday, so this is our final call across all three Splash Sports “The Big Splash” entries before kickoff Sunday afternoon. All three of our Week 1 games are on the board now with a full week of line movement behind them, so we went back through every number with this weekend’s actual market pricing rather than the projections we were working from over the summer.
What Changed
- Tennessee is a modest home favorite over the Jets — not the comfortable favorite our earlier number had it as. The line has settled at Titans -1.5 (moneyline -120), which prices Tennessee at right around 53% to win, and an independent model (numberFire) has them at 52.8%. We’re moving Entry B’s number down to match.
- Las Vegas is still favored at home over Miami, but by a touch less than our last update — Raiders -3.5 (moneyline -185) prices out to about 63% once the vig is stripped out, with Kalshi’s prediction market pricing it almost identically. That’s consistent with Brock Bowers still being out, which we already accounted for; this is just the final settled number.
- Jacksonville remains our biggest favorite of the week at home over Cleveland, trimmed slightly to 79% (from 81%) on this weekend’s line — Jaguars -8 (moneyline -400) — with Trevor Lawrence and the offense unaffected by anything on Cleveland’s side.
- Rashawn Slater (Chargers LT) is on track to play Week 1 after clearing his knee rehab, and Micah Parsons (Packers) is still targeting a mid-October return — both trackers we watch for future weeks, neither changes a Week 1 pick.
Entry A: Las Vegas Raiders, 63%
Raiders at home over Miami is still the pick. Las Vegas is favored by 3.5 with Bowers sidelined and Michael Mayer running as the top tight end, and Miami is breaking in Malik Willis at quarterback after an offseason release at the position — a shakier opponent than the number alone suggests. We again checked whether a stronger, currently-unused team was worth pulling forward to lock in a cleaner number — Denver (89% in its actual Week 13 slot) and Baltimore (87% in Week 16) are the two that keep coming up — and again passed: those weeks carry roughly 1.7x the cost weight of a single week in our model, so spending a top-tier team there to shave a few points off an already-favored Week 1 pick is a bad trade. Las Vegas at 63% stays the call.
Entry B: Tennessee Titans, 53%
This is the closest of our three Week 1 games, and we still like Tennessee at home over a Jets team that’s rebuilding around a new coaching staff. We checked every other team Entry B has left in its bank for a better Week 1 option — Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, plus Miami and the Jets themselves, since Las Vegas and Jacksonville are spoken for by our other two entries — and every one of them is a bigger underdog this week than Tennessee is a favorite (Arizona +420 at the Chargers, Atlanta +155 at Pittsburgh, Carolina +150 hosting Chicago). A near-coin-flip favorite still beats a live underdog, so Tennessee remains Entry B’s best available Week 1 pick even at the tighter number. Worth flagging for later: Entry B’s Week 2 pick is the Chargers against these same Raiders, and a still-recovering Las Vegas receiving corps only helps that number.
Entry C: Jacksonville Jaguars, 79%
No change to the pick itself — Jacksonville at home over Cleveland is still our strongest Week 1 number by a wide margin, trimmed only slightly to 79% on this weekend’s settled line. Deshaun Watson is confirmed as Cleveland’s Week 1 starter over Shedeur Sanders, and nothing on the injury report for either side moves this number further. Jaguars remain the pick.
Update (later Sept. 11): Two Week 2 Numbers Move Too
Week 2 lines are starting to come in as well, and two of our three Week 2 picks moved with them. Tampa Bay’s number ticks down slightly to 73% (from 74%) against Cleveland. The bigger move is Atlanta: Carolina has closed the gap to a near coin flip, and the Falcons’ number comes down to 52% (from 61%) at home against the Panthers. We checked every other team left in Entry C’s bank for a better Week 2 option — Arizona, Carolina itself, Cleveland, Las Vegas, Miami, and the Jets are all bigger underdogs in their own Week 2 games — so Atlanta stays the pick at the tighter number. Entry B’s Chargers-vs-Raiders line for Week 2 hasn’t posted yet; we’ll revisit that one once it does.
The Full 18-Week Roadmap
Five numbers have moved since this post first went up — all three Week 1 picks plus two of the three Week 2 picks — which shifts every entry’s cumulative survival odds in the last column from Week 1 forward. Every pick beyond Week 2 is unchanged. Survival odds are the cumulative product of each entry’s weekly win probabilities (both picks multiplied together on double-pick weeks).
| Wk | Entry A | Entry B | Entry C | Survival Odds (A / B / C) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Vegas Raiders (vs Miami Dolphins, 63%)‡ | Tennessee Titans (vs New York Jets, 53%)§ | Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Cleveland Browns, 79%)¶ | 63.0% / 53.0% / 79.0% |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs Cleveland Browns, 73%)# | Los Angeles Chargers (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 84%) | Atlanta Falcons (vs Carolina Panthers, 52%)″ | 46.0% / 44.5% / 41.1% |
| 3 (DOUBLE) | New Orleans Saints (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 72%) San Francisco 49ers (vs Arizona Cardinals, 89%) |
New York Giants (vs Tennessee Titans, 66%) Green Bay Packers (vs Atlanta Falcons, 66%)† |
Detroit Lions (vs New York Jets, 88%) Kansas City Chiefs (@Miami Dolphins, 81%) |
29.5% / 19.4% / 29.3% |
| 4 | Minnesota Vikings (vs Miami Dolphins, 84%) | Chicago Bears (vs New York Jets, 82%) | New York Giants (vs Arizona Cardinals, 79%) | 24.8% / 15.9% / 23.1% |
| 5 | Cincinnati Bengals (@Miami Dolphins, 79%) | New England Patriots (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 84%) | Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Indianapolis Colts, 63%) | 19.6% / 13.4% / 14.6% |
| 6 (DOUBLE) | New England Patriots (vs New York Jets, 85%) Los Angeles Rams (vs Arizona Cardinals, 93%) |
Philadelphia Eagles (vs Carolina Panthers, 79%) Indianapolis Colts (vs Tennessee Titans, 68%) |
Buffalo Bills (@Las Vegas Raiders, 79%) Baltimore Ravens (@Cleveland Browns, 77%) |
15.5% / 7.2% / 8.9% |
| 7 | New York Jets (vs Miami Dolphins, 67%) | Houston Texans (vs New York Giants, 76%) | Tennessee Titans (vs Cleveland Browns, 61%) | 10.4% / 5.5% / 5.4% |
| 8 | Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Cleveland Browns, 74%) | Dallas Cowboys (vs Arizona Cardinals, 86%) | Green Bay Packers (vs Carolina Panthers, 78%) | 7.7% / 4.7% / 4.2% |
| 9 (DOUBLE) | Seattle Seahawks (vs Arizona Cardinals, 92%) Kansas City Chiefs (vs New York Jets, 85%) |
Detroit Lions (@Miami Dolphins, 85%) San Francisco 49ers (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 84%) |
Chicago Bears (vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 64%) New Orleans Saints (vs Cleveland Browns, 70%) |
6.0% / 3.3% / 1.9% |
| 10 | Indianapolis Colts (vs Miami Dolphins, 81%) | Los Angeles Rams (@Arizona Cardinals, 87%) | Houston Texans (@Cleveland Browns, 71%) | 4.9% / 2.9% / 1.3% |
| 11 | Dallas Cowboys (vs Tennessee Titans, 76%) | Kansas City Chiefs (vs Arizona Cardinals, 89%) | Los Angeles Chargers (vs New York Jets, 86%) | 3.7% / 2.6% / 1.2% |
| 12 (DOUBLE) | Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Tennessee Titans, 79%) Washington Commanders (@Arizona Cardinals, 68%) |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs Carolina Panthers, 68%) Cleveland Browns (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 60%) |
Cincinnati Bengals (vs New Orleans Saints, 71%) Indianapolis Colts (vs New York Giants, 61%) |
2.0% / 1.1% / 0.50% |
| 13 (DOUBLE) | Denver Broncos (vs Miami Dolphins, 89%) Philadelphia Eagles (@Arizona Cardinals, 82%) |
Minnesota Vikings (vs Carolina Panthers, 69%) Cincinnati Bengals (@Cleveland Browns, 68%) |
Washington Commanders (@Tennessee Titans, 52%) Seattle Seahawks (vs Dallas Cowboys, 74%) |
1.4% / 0.50% / 0.19% |
| 14 (DOUBLE) | Chicago Bears (@Miami Dolphins, 78%) Detroit Lions (vs Tennessee Titans, 85%) |
Baltimore Ravens (vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 76%) Seattle Seahawks (vs New York Giants, 82%) |
Denver Broncos (@New York Jets, 75%) Philadelphia Eagles (vs Indianapolis Colts, 75%) |
0.96% / 0.31% / 0.11% |
| 15 (DOUBLE) | Green Bay Packers (vs Miami Dolphins, 90%) New York Giants (vs Cleveland Browns, 68%) |
Denver Broncos (@Las Vegas Raiders, 72%) Washington Commanders (vs Atlanta Falcons, 61%) |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs New Orleans Saints, 63%) Los Angeles Rams (vs Dallas Cowboys, 75%) |
0.59% / 0.14% / 0.051% |
| 16 (DOUBLE) | Baltimore Ravens (vs Cleveland Browns, 87%) Los Angeles Chargers (@Miami Dolphins, 82%) |
New Orleans Saints (vs Arizona Cardinals, 81%) Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Carolina Panthers, 68%) |
New England Patriots (@New York Jets, 75%) Minnesota Vikings (vs Washington Commanders, 64%) |
0.42% / 0.075% / 0.025% |
| 17 | Buffalo Bills (@Miami Dolphins, 86%) | Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Washington Commanders, 71%) | Dallas Cowboys (vs New York Giants, 69%) | 0.36% / 0.053% / 0.017% |
| 18 | Houston Texans (vs Tennessee Titans, 81%) | Buffalo Bills (vs New York Jets, 89%) | San Francisco 49ers (@Arizona Cardinals, 81%) | 0.29% / 0.047% / 0.014% |
† Green Bay’s Week 3 win probability is revised down from 76% on Micah Parsons’ absence — see prior posts for the original adjustment. ‡ Las Vegas revised to 63% this week (was 69% preseason, 64% after the Bowers injury) to match this weekend’s settled market pricing. § Tennessee revised to 53% this week (was 65%) to match this weekend’s settled market pricing — still Entry B’s best available Week 1 option after checking every alternate. ¶ Jacksonville revised to 79% this week (was 81%) to match this weekend’s settled market pricing. # Tampa Bay revised to 73% (was 74%) to match a newly live Week 2 market. ″ Atlanta revised to 52% (was 61%) to match a newly live Week 2 market — still Entry C’s best available option that week after checking every alternate.
What’s Next
All three entries play their actual Week 1 games Sunday, Sept. 13 — Raiders host Miami, Titans host the Jets, Jaguars host Cleveland. These are our final numbers heading into kickoff; we’ll be back this Saturday evening with a last look at the injury report before locking picks, and again next Tuesday to grade the results and set up Week 2.