Breaking news out of Las Vegas four days before kickoff: Raiders tight end Brock Bowers — the team’s leading receiver and one of its most dangerous weapons — underwent knee surgery to repair a torn meniscus on Tuesday and is expected to miss “a game or two,” per multiple reports. That’s a real, confirmed downgrade to Entry A’s Week 1 Splash Sports “The Big Splash” pick, so we’re running an unscheduled update between our regular Tuesday posts to walk through it.
What Changed
- Brock Bowers (Raiders TE) is confirmed out for Sunday’s opener against Miami after Tuesday’s meniscus surgery, with a “week or two” recovery window per an AP source. Michael Mayer steps into the lead tight end role, with Ian Thomas as the third option. This is a real, dated development — not a recycled story — and it’s the reason for this update.
- Ashton Jeanty (Raiders RB), the injury we’ve been tracking since Aug. 23, resolved favorably this week: he returned to practice and head coach Klint Kubiak said Wednesday the team is “expecting to have all of our guys ready for Sunday.” Barring a late setback, he’s playing.
Entry A: Holding Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1 — at a lower number
We’re moving Entry A’s Las Vegas Raiders number down to 64% (from 69%) to reflect Bowers’ absence, and holding the pick. Here’s the reasoning: pregame market lines as of Tuesday had the Raiders favored by 3.5–4 points (moneyline in the -178 to -185 range, implying roughly 64–65% before the injury was even public), and Miami is still breaking in Malik Willis at quarterback after releasing their prior starter in the offseason — a shakier opponent than the number alone suggests. Losing Bowers is a real hit to the passing game, but it doesn’t touch the run game (Jeanty is playing) or the defense, and Michael Mayer is a competent NFL tight end, not a total void. We seriously considered pulling a stronger, currently-unused team forward to remove the risk entirely — Denver Broncos (89% in their actual Week 13 slot) and Baltimore Ravens (87% in Week 16) are the two we keep coming back to — but rejected it for the same reason as every other week: Weeks 12–16 carry roughly 1.7x the cost weight of a single week in our model, and spending a top-tier team there to shave a few points off an already-favored Week 1 pick is a bad trade. We’re holding Las Vegas at the revised 64%.
Entry B: Holding Tennessee Titans in Week 1
No change here — Entry B stays on the Tennessee Titans (65% vs. the Jets). Worth noting for later: Entry B’s Week 2 pick is the Los Angeles Chargers against these same Raiders, and a Bowers-less Raiders offense for a second straight week (if the “game or two” timeline stretches that far) would only help that number, which is already a comfortable 84%. Nothing to act on now.
Entry C: Holding Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1
No change here either — Entry C stays on the Jacksonville Jaguars (81% vs. Cleveland), still our strongest Week 1 number by a wide margin and unaffected by anything happening in Las Vegas. Jaguars remain the pick.
The Full 18-Week Roadmap
One number moved this update — Entry A’s Week 1 Las Vegas figure, down to 64% from 69% on the Bowers news — which also shifts Entry A’s cumulative survival odds in the last column for every week from here forward. Every other pick is unchanged. Survival odds are the cumulative product of each entry’s weekly win probabilities (both picks multiplied together on double-pick weeks).
| Wk | Entry A | Entry B | Entry C | Survival Odds (A / B / C) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Vegas Raiders (vs Miami Dolphins, 64%) | Tennessee Titans (vs New York Jets, 65%) | Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Cleveland Browns, 81%) | 64.0% / 65.0% / 81.0% |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs Cleveland Browns, 74%) | Los Angeles Chargers (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 84%) | Atlanta Falcons (vs Carolina Panthers, 61%) | 47.4% / 54.6% / 49.4% |
| 3 (DOUBLE) | New Orleans Saints (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 72%) San Francisco 49ers (vs Arizona Cardinals, 89%) |
New York Giants (vs Tennessee Titans, 66%) Green Bay Packers (vs Atlanta Falcons, 66%)† |
Detroit Lions (vs New York Jets, 88%) Kansas City Chiefs (@Miami Dolphins, 81%) |
30.3% / 23.8% / 35.2% |
| 4 | Minnesota Vikings (vs Miami Dolphins, 84%) | Chicago Bears (vs New York Jets, 82%) | New York Giants (vs Arizona Cardinals, 79%) | 25.5% / 19.5% / 27.8% |
| 5 | Cincinnati Bengals (@Miami Dolphins, 79%) | New England Patriots (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 84%) | Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Indianapolis Colts, 63%) | 20.1% / 16.4% / 17.5% |
| 6 (DOUBLE) | New England Patriots (vs New York Jets, 85%) Los Angeles Rams (vs Arizona Cardinals, 93%) |
Philadelphia Eagles (vs Carolina Panthers, 79%) Indianapolis Colts (vs Tennessee Titans, 68%) |
Buffalo Bills (@Las Vegas Raiders, 79%) Baltimore Ravens (@Cleveland Browns, 77%) |
15.9% / 8.8% / 10.7% |
| 7 | New York Jets (vs Miami Dolphins, 67%) | Houston Texans (vs New York Giants, 76%) | Tennessee Titans (vs Cleveland Browns, 61%) | 10.7% / 6.7% / 6.5% |
| 8 | Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Cleveland Browns, 74%) | Dallas Cowboys (vs Arizona Cardinals, 86%) | Green Bay Packers (vs Carolina Panthers, 78%) | 7.9% / 5.8% / 5.1% |
| 9 (DOUBLE) | Seattle Seahawks (vs Arizona Cardinals, 92%) Kansas City Chiefs (vs New York Jets, 85%) |
Detroit Lions (@Miami Dolphins, 85%) San Francisco 49ers (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 84%) |
Chicago Bears (vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 64%) New Orleans Saints (vs Cleveland Browns, 70%) |
6.2% / 4.1% / 2.3% |
| 10 | Indianapolis Colts (vs Miami Dolphins, 81%) | Los Angeles Rams (@Arizona Cardinals, 87%) | Houston Texans (@Cleveland Browns, 71%) | 5.0% / 3.6% / 1.6% |
| 11 | Dallas Cowboys (vs Tennessee Titans, 76%) | Kansas City Chiefs (vs Arizona Cardinals, 89%) | Los Angeles Chargers (vs New York Jets, 86%) | 3.8% / 3.2% / 1.4% |
| 12 (DOUBLE) | Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Tennessee Titans, 79%) Washington Commanders (@Arizona Cardinals, 68%) |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs Carolina Panthers, 68%) Cleveland Browns (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 60%) |
Cincinnati Bengals (vs New Orleans Saints, 71%) Indianapolis Colts (vs New York Giants, 61%) |
2.0% / 1.3% / 0.60% |
| 13 (DOUBLE) | Denver Broncos (vs Miami Dolphins, 89%) Philadelphia Eagles (@Arizona Cardinals, 82%) |
Minnesota Vikings (vs Carolina Panthers, 69%) Cincinnati Bengals (@Cleveland Browns, 68%) |
Washington Commanders (@Tennessee Titans, 52%) Seattle Seahawks (vs Dallas Cowboys, 74%) |
1.5% / 0.61% / 0.23% |
| 14 (DOUBLE) | Chicago Bears (@Miami Dolphins, 78%) Detroit Lions (vs Tennessee Titans, 85%) |
Baltimore Ravens (vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 76%) Seattle Seahawks (vs New York Giants, 82%) |
Denver Broncos (@New York Jets, 75%) Philadelphia Eagles (vs Indianapolis Colts, 75%) |
0.99% / 0.38% / 0.13% |
| 15 (DOUBLE) | Green Bay Packers (vs Miami Dolphins, 90%) New York Giants (vs Cleveland Browns, 68%) |
Denver Broncos (@Las Vegas Raiders, 72%) Washington Commanders (vs Atlanta Falcons, 61%) |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs New Orleans Saints, 63%) Los Angeles Rams (vs Dallas Cowboys, 75%) |
0.60% / 0.17% / 0.061% |
| 16 (DOUBLE) | Baltimore Ravens (vs Cleveland Browns, 87%) Los Angeles Chargers (@Miami Dolphins, 82%) |
New Orleans Saints (vs Arizona Cardinals, 81%) Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Carolina Panthers, 68%) |
New England Patriots (@New York Jets, 75%) Minnesota Vikings (vs Washington Commanders, 64%) |
0.43% / 0.092% / 0.030% |
| 17 | Buffalo Bills (@Miami Dolphins, 86%) | Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Washington Commanders, 71%) | Dallas Cowboys (vs New York Giants, 69%) | 0.37% / 0.065% / 0.020% |
| 18 | Houston Texans (vs Tennessee Titans, 81%) | Buffalo Bills (vs New York Jets, 89%) | San Francisco 49ers (@Arizona Cardinals, 81%) | 0.30% / 0.058% / 0.016% |
† Green Bay’s Week 3 win probability is revised down from 76% on Micah Parsons’ absence — see prior posts for the original adjustment.
What’s Next
All three entries play their actual Week 1 games this Sunday, Sept. 13 — Raiders host Miami, Titans host the Jets, Jaguars host Cleveland. We’ll be watching the official injury report for any late change to Bowers’ or Jeanty’s status between now and kickoff, but barring that, this is the number we’re carrying into Sunday. Our next post will grade the results.