The Cincinnati Bengals enter 2026 with one question hanging over everything else: what does this roster look like with a healthy Joe Burrow for a full season? After three straight years outside the playoffs, our team thinks the answer to that question will decide most of what happens here.
2025 Season Recap
Cincinnati’s 2025 season came apart almost entirely because of one injury. The Bengals opened 2-0, but Burrow suffered a Grade 3 turf toe injury in Week 2 against Jacksonville and missed the next several months. Without him, the team went 1-8, eventually turning to veteran Joe Flacco under center, and the low point came in a 48-10 loss to Minnesota that stands as the worst defeat in franchise history. Cincinnati finished 6-11, its worst record since 2020, and missed the playoffs for a third consecutive season.
There were still real bright spots. Burrow returned on Thanksgiving night and led a 32-14 win over Baltimore — the franchise’s first-ever Thanksgiving victory. Ja’Marr Chase topped 1,000 receiving yards for the fifth straight season, one of only five wide receivers in NFL history to do that to open a career. But the defense was the story all year, finishing 31st in total yards allowed and 30th in points allowed, and that’s the unit the front office spent the offseason trying to fix.
Offseason Moves
The Bengals made a deliberate choice not to blow things up. Owner Mike Brown, general manager Duke Tobin, and head coach Zac Taylor were all retained for 2026, and Taylor confirmed there would be no coaching staff changes — meaning defensive coordinator Al Golden, hired midway through last season to replace Lou Anarumo, gets a full offseason and training camp to install his scheme.
The biggest swing of the offseason was a trade, not a free-agent signing. In April, Cincinnati sent its No. 10 overall pick to the Giants for defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, immediately signing him to a one-year, $28 million extension. It’s a notable bet: Lawrence, a two-time All-Pro, was coming off arguably the worst season of his career, with just 31 tackles and half a sack in 17 games. The Bengals are betting a change of scenery and a healthier role revive him, and they didn’t stop there — free agency brought in fellow defensive tackle Jonathan Allen on a two-year deal after his lone season in Minnesota, giving Cincinnati a genuinely rebuilt interior line.
Edge rusher was the other priority, out of necessity: the Bengals lost both Trey Hendrickson and Joseph Ossai in free agency and replaced that production with Boye Mafe, signed away from Seattle on a three-year, $60 million deal after ranking eighth among edge rushers in pass rush win rate last season. The secondary got an upgrade too, with safety Bryan Cook arriving on a three-year, $40.25 million contract to pair with Jordan Battle. On offense, the moves were far quieter — the headline addition was veteran Josh Johnson, back for a third stint as Burrow’s backup after Jake Browning and Joe Flacco both left in free agency.
2026 Season Outlook
Cincinnati’s schedule runs through a loaded AFC North, with two games apiece against Baltimore, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh forming the backbone of the year. Beyond the division, the Bengals catch the entire AFC South (hosting Jacksonville and Tennessee, traveling to Indianapolis and Houston) and the entire NFC South, plus a home date with Kansas City and a trip to Miami. None of that is easy, but almost all of it is more manageable if the passing game Chase and Burrow build together stays on the field.
The whole outlook really does come down to health and whether a defense that ranked among the league’s worst a year ago can take a real step forward with three new starters up front. If Golden’s unit even reaches league-average, this roster’s offensive ceiling makes Cincinnati a real threat in a winnable division.
Our Team’s Projection
We’re projecting the Bengals at 9-8 for 2026. Cincinnati’s season win total opened at 10.5 (Over +115, Under -140), and our projection leans toward the under.
The case for the over starts and ends with Burrow: in the seasons he’s played close to a full slate, this offense has been good enough to carry a mediocre defense to the playoffs, and the interior defensive line overhaul with Lawrence and Allen gives Golden more talent to work with than he had a year ago. The case for the under is that Cincinnati is stacking real questions on top of each other — a defensive tackle who trade market rightly flagged as coming off a down year, an edge group that lost its top two pass rushers and replaced them with one player, and a secondary still finding its shape. Betting a team to clear 10.5 wins generally means betting on very few things going wrong, and this roster still has enough moving parts that our team isn’t ready to lean that far in one direction. For more on how to think through a number like this one, our team broke down how season win totals actually work in our Bet Smarter series — it’s worth a read before putting money on any team’s over/under this summer, including a loaded AFC North that also includes a Baltimore Ravens team standing in Cincinnati’s way twice a year.