A year ago, the Chicago Bears were an afterthought in the NFC North. Now they’re the team everyone else in the division is chasing, and 2026 is the year that tells us whether last season was the start of something real or a one-year jump fueled by turnover luck and close-game magic. Our team dug into the tape, the moves, and the schedule to figure out which version of the Bears shows up this fall.
2025 Season Recap
Chicago’s turnaround under first-year head coach Ben Johnson was as complete as they come. A team that finished 5-12 in 2024 went 11-6 in 2025, won the NFC North for the first time since 2018, and earned the No. 2 seed in the NFC — the Bears’ first winning season in seven years. Along the way, quarterback Caleb Williams set a new franchise single-season passing record with 3,942 yards, breaking Erik Kramer’s mark that had stood since 1995, while a defense that generated a league-leading +22 turnover margin bailed the offense out more than once. Chicago also pulled off six fourth-quarter comebacks in the regular season, the kind of late-game composure that had been almost entirely absent from this roster in prior years.
The season ended on a mixed note. The Bears dropped their regular-season finale to Detroit 19-16 to close at 11-6, then opened the playoffs with a comeback Wild Card win over Green Bay, 31-27, before their run ended in overtime against the Rams in the Divisional Round, 20-17. It was a season that also carried real emotional weight off the field — longtime principal owner Virginia Halas McCaskey passed away in February 2025 at age 102, closing out more than four decades at the helm of the franchise.
Offseason Moves
The biggest offseason decision was really a non-decision: Ben Johnson stays, and continuity after a breakout year is its own kind of statement about where this organization thinks it’s headed. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen returns as well, giving Chicago rare year-over-year stability on both sides of the ball after years of coaching churn.
Free agency leaned toward reinforcing a defense that already carried the team late in games. Safety Coby Bryant, a former Super Bowl champion in Seattle, signed a three-year, $40 million deal to add coverage help on the back end, while linebacker Devin Bush — who tied for the NFL lead with multiple pick-sixes and racked up 125 tackles in 2025 — landed a three-year, $30 million contract. The Bears also added interior line depth with Neville Gallimore, Kentavius Street, and James Lynch, and brought in corner Cam Lewis for versatility across the secondary. On offense, Chicago traded a 2027 fifth-round pick to New England for center Garrett Bradbury after Drew Dalman’s retirement, signed tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. to compete for the starting left tackle job, and added former Lions receiver Kalif Raymond, one of the more dangerous punt returners in the league. The team did lose some pieces, most notably linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (released) and receiver Olamide Zaccheaus, who signed with Atlanta.
In the draft, Chicago used its first-round pick, No. 25 overall, on Oregon defensive back Dillon Thieneman, adding another piece to a secondary that’s now been retooled for a second straight offseason. The Bears followed with two Day 2 picks — Iowa offensive lineman Logan Jones and Stanford tight end Sam Roush — before rounding out the class with LSU receiver Zavion Thomas, Texas defensive back Malik Muhammad, Arizona State linebacker Keyshaun Elliott, and Georgia Tech defensive lineman Jordan van den Berg.
2026 Season Outlook
The schedule is the honest asterisk on last year’s success. Chicago benefited from the ninth-easiest slate in the league in 2025 and still only went 3-2 against the five playoff teams it faced. This year’s schedule projects as roughly the sixth-toughest in the NFL, a meaningful jump that will test whether the Bears’ turnaround was built on sustainable strengths — the turnover generation, the fourth-quarter poise, Williams’ development — or on a favorable set of opponents. A division that now includes a legitimate NFC North race, plus a broader slate of quality competition, means Chicago won’t be able to lean on schedule the way it did a year ago.
Our Team’s Projection
We’re projecting the Bears to finish 10-7 in 2026. That’s a step back from last year’s win total but still a playoff-caliber season, and it reflects our view that Chicago is a genuinely improved football team playing a genuinely tougher schedule.
Chicago’s season win total sits at 9.5, with the over priced at +105 and the under at -125. Our 10-7 projection leans toward the over. The case for it starts with continuity: keeping Ben Johnson and Dennis Allen in place after a breakout year is rare, and the year-two version of a Caleb Williams-led offense with a full offseason in this system should be better, not worse. The defensive additions in Bryant and Bush add proven playmakers to a unit that already forced turnovers at an elite rate. There’s a solid under case too — last year’s +22 turnover margin and six fourth-quarter comebacks are the kind of numbers that are notoriously hard to repeat, and a jump from the ninth-easiest schedule to something closer to the middle of the pack is exactly the kind of regression that tends to show up in the win column first. If you want a deeper look at how to think through spots like this, our Bet Smarter breakdown on how season win totals actually work is a good place to start.
One thought on “2026 Chicago Bears Season Preview”