The regular season is down to its final week, and our team has been tracking a playoff picture that’s finally starting to take real shape. Six teams have already punched their tickets, five more could clinch in the coming days, and one of the tightest wild-card races in recent memory is still up for grabs in the National League. Here’s what actually happened this week — and why it matters heading into October.
Boston’s Wild Ride to October
The story of the week is Boston. The Red Sox clinched a Wild Card berth after starting the season 32-46 — the worst 78-game stretch of any team to ever turn around and finish above .500. That’s not a typo. Interim manager Chad Tracy took over a 10-17 club on April 26, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow made coaching changes just 27 games in, and Willson Contreras emerged as the clubhouse’s steadying voice. What followed was a 27-3 stretch over 30 games from late June into early August — the best run in franchise history — including a 15-game winning streak and a four-game sweep of the Yankees. However Boston’s postseason run plays out, that’s a genuinely remarkable turnaround, and it’s a reminder of why we don’t write off a season in May.
Division Races Still Live in Both Leagues
Not everything is settled. Tampa Bay wrapped up its first AL East title since 2021, and Atlanta, Milwaukee, and the Dodgers have all clinched their divisions — Milwaukee’s 98-59 mark also locks up a first-round bye. But the AL Central is a dogfight: Cleveland and the White Sox are separated by a single game, with Chicago holding the tiebreaker edge. Out west, Texas leads Houston by one, and Seattle — five games back with a week to play — is still technically alive. Any of those three could flip before the weekend.
A Three-Way Tie for the Last NL Spot
The most interesting race left, in our view, is in the National League, where the Cubs, Phillies, and Padres are all sitting at 85-69 with eight games to go and one spot on the line. Chicago holds the tiebreaker advantage over both, which matters given how tight this has been. The Padres are the team to watch right now — they’ve won 11 of their last 12 after trailing by 5.5 games just two weeks ago, and that run has effectively closed the door on Arizona’s long-shot bid. San Diego closes with Miami, at the Dodgers, then Arizona; Philadelphia gets the Mets, Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay; Chicago finishes against Cincinnati, Miami, and Boston. Three very different closing schedules, and the tiebreaker math means this could come down to the final Sunday.
Individual Storylines Worth Following
A few personal milestones are adding extra drama to the last week. Pete Crow-Armstrong is sitting at 40 home runs and needs just two stolen bases to join the exclusive 40-40 club — only a handful of players in MLB history have done it. Yordan Alvarez is chasing a Triple Crown, leading the AL in batting average at .313 and within a homer of the lead, though he’s still working to catch Pete Alonso in RBIs. Luis Arraez is pushing for a fourth career batting title with a fourth different team, which would be unprecedented. And on the mound, Jacob Misiorowski and Cam Schlittler are both within range of a sub-2.00 ERA with 230-plus strikeouts — a combination no pitcher has managed since 1972.
Injury Watch
A few injuries are worth flagging as teams set their postseason rosters. Cardinals shortstop Masyn Winn is on the IL with a broken left thumb, though he’s expected back on the team’s West Coast trip. Reds pitcher Hunter Greene is done for the year after Tommy John surgery. Giants third baseman Matt Chapman is facing season-ending surgery for an abdominal strain. Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman is day-to-day after a fall down the dugout stairs chasing a foul ball, and Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper is managing knee soreness after his move from first base to right field. None of these are season-defining for a contender yet, but they’re the kind of situational factors our team weighs when looking at a team’s true form down the stretch.
What We’re Watching Next
With the wild-card picture this tight and several division races still technically live, this final week is going to move fast — and it sets up a postseason field where matchup analysis is going to matter more than usual. We’ll have our full breakdown of the bracket and the storylines that carry into October once the seeding is official. Same process our team’s been running since ’98, just applied to a field that’s about to get a lot more interesting.