Week 1 of the NFL season is complete, and our three-entry campaign in Splash Sports‘s “The Big Splash” $3,000,000 survivor pool just had its first real result: two entries won, and one is out. Here’s where all three stand heading into Week 2, with the full remaining-season roadmap below.
What Changed
- Entry A’s Las Vegas Raiders beat the Miami Dolphins 27-13. Kirk Cousins threw three touchdown passes, and Ashton Jeanty — the ankle injury we tracked for most of August — had 147 total yards and 2 touchdowns.
- Entry B’s Tennessee Titans lost to the New York Jets 23-10, eliminating the entry. New York outgained Tennessee 361 total yards to 195.
- Entry C’s Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Cleveland Browns 34-10. Trevor Lawrence went 18-of-23 for 245 yards and 4 touchdowns.
- Entry A’s Week 2 pick, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (home vs. Cleveland), moves from 73% to 76% after the Browns’ Week 1 offense managed just 10 points and Tampa’s line moved from -6.5 to -8.5.
- Entry C’s Week 2 pick, the Atlanta Falcons (home vs. Carolina), holds at 52%. Atlanta starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is out with an oblique injury (Cooper Rush starts in his place), which is roughly offset by Carolina’s defense having just allowed 59 points in its own opener — the two cancel out, which is why the number didn’t move.
Entry A: Riding the Raiders Into a Buccaneers Week
Entry A is 1-0. The Week 1 Las Vegas pick — the number we spent four straight weeks adjusting for Brock Bowers’ knee surgery and Ashton Jeanty’s ankle — came through: the Raiders won 27-13, with Jeanty looking fully healthy (147 total yards, 2 touchdowns) and Michael Mayer picking up the receiving-game slack in Bowers’ absence just as we’d modeled.
Week 2 sends Entry A to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at home against a Cleveland team that just lost 34-10 and mustered only 10 points on offense. That combination pushed the market from an opening -6.5 to -8.5 by today, which we’re carrying as a 76% win probability, up from the 73% we had going into the weekend. We checked the rest of Entry A’s bank for a stronger alternative this week: the Los Angeles Rams are the biggest favorite on the board, but they’re already earmarked for the Week 6 double-pick week, where the season-long model weights a correct pick roughly 1.3x a single week — spending that team now to shave a few points off an already-favored Tampa Bay pick would be the same bad trade we’ve rejected each time a similar swap has come up this season. Buccaneers at 76% stays the call.
Entry B: Eliminated in Week 1
Entry B is out. The Tennessee Titans, at 53% against the Jets after Sunday’s live-market correction from a stale 65% we’d carried since July, lost 23-10 — New York’s offense outgained Tennessee 361 yards to 195. A real 53/47 number came up on the wrong side, which is the risk that number always carried; there’s no error to correct here, just a result. Entry B’s remaining weeks are shown as eliminated in the roadmap below rather than removed, so the original season-long plan for that entry stays visible for reference. The contest continues as a two-entry campaign between Entries A and C.
Entry C: Jaguars Deliver, Falcons Are Next
Entry C is 1-0. Jacksonville’s offensive line questions (the Patrick Mekari situation we tracked all August) didn’t matter in Week 1 — Trevor Lawrence had one of the best games of his career, 18-of-23 for 245 yards and 4 touchdowns, in a 34-10 win over Cleveland.
Week 2 keeps Entry C’s number at Atlanta, at 52% at home against Carolina. It’s a closer game than most of our picks this season, and it comes with a real story: Falcons starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is out this week with an oblique injury from Thursday practice, with Cooper Rush getting the start. That’s real quarterback uncertainty for a home favorite, but it’s being offset by just how bad Carolina’s defense looked in its own opener, giving up 59 points. We checked Entry C’s remaining bank for a materially better option this week and didn’t find one without pulling a team out of a heavier-weighted future week, so Atlanta at 52% stays the pick — with Rush’s performance and Tua’s return timeline both worth watching before Sunday.
The Full 18-Week Roadmap
Entry B’s remaining weeks are marked ELIMINATED below; its original planned allocation is preserved in the season strategy doc for reference, not shown here as live picks.
| Wk | Type | Entry A | Entry B | Entry C | Cumulative Survival (A / B / C) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | single | Las Vegas Raiders (vs Miami Dolphins, 60%) ✓ WON 27-13 | Tennessee Titans (vs New York Jets, 53%) ✗ LOST 10-23 | Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Cleveland Browns, 79%) ✓ WON 34-10 | 100.0% / ELIM / 100.0% |
| 2 | single | Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs Cleveland Browns, 76%) | ELIMINATED (Wk 1) | Atlanta Falcons (vs Carolina Panthers, 52%) | 76.0% / ELIM / 52.0% |
| 3 | DOUBLE | New Orleans Saints (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 72%) San Francisco 49ers (vs Arizona Cardinals, 89%) |
ELIMINATED (Wk 1) | Detroit Lions (vs New York Jets, 88%) Kansas City Chiefs (@Miami Dolphins, 81%) |
48.7% / ELIM / 37.1% |
| 4 | single | Minnesota Vikings (vs Miami Dolphins, 84%) | ELIMINATED (Wk 1) | New York Giants (vs Arizona Cardinals, 79%) | 40.9% / ELIM / 29.3% |
| 5 | single | Cincinnati Bengals (@Miami Dolphins, 79%) | ELIMINATED (Wk 1) | Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Indianapolis Colts, 63%) | 32.3% / ELIM / 18.4% |
| 6 | DOUBLE | New England Patriots (vs New York Jets, 85%) Los Angeles Rams (vs Arizona Cardinals, 93%) |
ELIMINATED (Wk 1) | Buffalo Bills (@Las Vegas Raiders, 79%) Baltimore Ravens (@Cleveland Browns, 77%) |
25.5% / ELIM / 11.2% |
| 7 | single | New York Jets (vs Miami Dolphins, 67%) | ELIMINATED (Wk 1) | Tennessee Titans (vs Cleveland Browns, 61%) | 17.1% / ELIM / 6.8% |
| 8 | single | Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Cleveland Browns, 74%) | ELIMINATED (Wk 1) | Green Bay Packers (vs Carolina Panthers, 78%) | 12.7% / ELIM / 5.3% |
| 9 | DOUBLE | Seattle Seahawks (vs Arizona Cardinals, 92%) Kansas City Chiefs (vs New York Jets, 85%) |
ELIMINATED (Wk 1) | Chicago Bears (vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 64%) New Orleans Saints (vs Cleveland Browns, 70%) |
9.9% / ELIM / 2.4% |
| 10 | single | Indianapolis Colts (vs Miami Dolphins, 81%) | ELIMINATED (Wk 1) | Houston Texans (@Cleveland Browns, 71%) | 8.0% / ELIM / 1.7% |
| 11 | single | Dallas Cowboys (vs Tennessee Titans, 76%) | ELIMINATED (Wk 1) | Los Angeles Chargers (vs New York Jets, 86%) | 6.1% / ELIM / 1.5% |
| 12 | DOUBLE | Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Tennessee Titans, 79%) Washington Commanders (@Arizona Cardinals, 68%) |
ELIMINATED (Wk 1) | Cincinnati Bengals (vs New Orleans Saints, 71%) Indianapolis Colts (vs New York Giants, 61%) |
3.3% / ELIM / 0.63% |
| 13 | DOUBLE | Denver Broncos (vs Miami Dolphins, 89%) Philadelphia Eagles (@Arizona Cardinals, 82%) |
ELIMINATED (Wk 1) | Washington Commanders (@Tennessee Titans, 52%) Seattle Seahawks (vs Dallas Cowboys, 74%) |
2.4% / ELIM / 0.24% |
| 14 | DOUBLE | Chicago Bears (@Miami Dolphins, 78%) Detroit Lions (vs Tennessee Titans, 85%) |
ELIMINATED (Wk 1) | Denver Broncos (@New York Jets, 75%) Philadelphia Eagles (vs Indianapolis Colts, 75%) |
1.6% / ELIM / 0.14% |
| 15 | DOUBLE | Green Bay Packers (vs Miami Dolphins, 90%) New York Giants (vs Cleveland Browns, 68%) |
ELIMINATED (Wk 1) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs New Orleans Saints, 63%) Los Angeles Rams (vs Dallas Cowboys, 75%) |
0.97% / ELIM / 0.065% |
| 16 | DOUBLE | Baltimore Ravens (vs Cleveland Browns, 87%) Los Angeles Chargers (@Miami Dolphins, 82%) |
ELIMINATED (Wk 1) | New England Patriots (@New York Jets, 75%) Minnesota Vikings (vs Washington Commanders, 64%) |
0.69% / ELIM / 0.031% |
| 17 | single | Buffalo Bills (@Miami Dolphins, 86%) | ELIMINATED (Wk 1) | Dallas Cowboys (vs New York Giants, 69%) | 0.60% / ELIM / 0.021% |
| 18 | single | Houston Texans (vs Tennessee Titans, 81%) | ELIMINATED (Wk 1) | San Francisco 49ers (@Arizona Cardinals, 81%) | 0.48% / ELIM / 0.017% |
What’s Next
Two entries into Week 2, one entry down. We’ll be back before kickoff with any further line movement on the Buccaneers and Falcons numbers, plus a look further down the board as more Week 2 injury reports come in.