Week 1 games kick off tomorrow, so this is our final pre-game check on all three Splash Sports “The Big Splash” entries before Sunday’s games. We went back through the closing lines and Friday’s final injury reports one more time to make sure nothing moved overnight.
What Changed
- Las Vegas ticked down again, from 63% to 60%, as the line kept drifting toward Miami into the weekend — Raiders -3, moneyline around -170, with Kalshi pricing it almost identically. Brock Bowers is still out at tight end, which was already factored in; this is just the market settling further, not new information.
- Tennessee and Jacksonville both held right where they were — Titans -1.5 (moneyline -118) still prices out to almost exactly 53%, and Jaguars -8.5 (moneyline -455) is right at 79%.
- Final injury reports are in for all three games. Tennessee will be without linebacker Cedric Gray (concussion protocol); the Jets are missing Joseph Ossai and Tim Patrick, with Kene Nwangwu and D’Angelo Ponds doubtful. Jacksonville has running back LeQuint Allen as a game-time decision, and Cleveland is without guard Teven Jenkins. None of it changes any of our three picks.
Entry A: Las Vegas Raiders, 60%
Raiders at home over Miami is still the pick. Ashton Jeanty is off the injury report entirely and good to go, and Bowers’ absence at tight end is already priced into the number. Las Vegas at 60% stays the call heading into Sunday.
Entry B: Tennessee Titans, 53%
Still the closest of our three games, and still Tennessee at home over the Jets. Losing Cedric Gray on defense is a real subtraction, but it’s already reflected in a final line that has the Titans as only a slight favorite. Tennessee at 53% remains the pick.
Entry C: Jacksonville Jaguars, 79%
No change here either. Jacksonville at home over Cleveland is still our biggest favorite of the week, and a Browns team already breaking in Deshaun Watson now has to do it without starting guard Teven Jenkins. Jaguars at 79% remains the call.
The Full 18-Week Roadmap
Only Entry A’s Week 1 number moved this update, which shifts Entry A’s cumulative survival odds down slightly for the rest of the season; every other pick and every other entry’s odds are unchanged from Wednesday. Survival odds are the cumulative product of each entry’s weekly win probabilities (both picks multiplied together on double-pick weeks).
| Wk | Entry A | Entry B | Entry C | Survival Odds (A / B / C) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Vegas Raiders (vs Miami Dolphins, 60%)‡ | Tennessee Titans (vs New York Jets, 53%)§ | Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Cleveland Browns, 79%)¶ | 60.0% / 53.0% / 79.0% |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs Cleveland Browns, 73%)# | Los Angeles Chargers (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 84%) | Atlanta Falcons (vs Carolina Panthers, 52%)″ | 43.8% / 44.5% / 41.1% |
| 3 (DOUBLE) | New Orleans Saints (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 72%) San Francisco 49ers (vs Arizona Cardinals, 89%) |
New York Giants (vs Tennessee Titans, 66%) Green Bay Packers (vs Atlanta Falcons, 66%)† |
Detroit Lions (vs New York Jets, 88%) Kansas City Chiefs (@Miami Dolphins, 81%) |
28.1% / 19.4% / 29.3% |
| 4 | Minnesota Vikings (vs Miami Dolphins, 84%) | Chicago Bears (vs New York Jets, 82%) | New York Giants (vs Arizona Cardinals, 79%) | 23.6% / 15.9% / 23.1% |
| 5 | Cincinnati Bengals (@Miami Dolphins, 79%) | New England Patriots (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 84%) | Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Indianapolis Colts, 63%) | 18.6% / 13.4% / 14.6% |
| 6 (DOUBLE) | New England Patriots (vs New York Jets, 85%) Los Angeles Rams (vs Arizona Cardinals, 93%) |
Philadelphia Eagles (vs Carolina Panthers, 79%) Indianapolis Colts (vs Tennessee Titans, 68%) |
Buffalo Bills (@Las Vegas Raiders, 79%) Baltimore Ravens (@Cleveland Browns, 77%) |
14.7% / 7.2% / 8.9% |
| 7 | New York Jets (vs Miami Dolphins, 67%) | Houston Texans (vs New York Giants, 76%) | Tennessee Titans (vs Cleveland Browns, 61%) | 9.9% / 5.5% / 5.4% |
| 8 | Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Cleveland Browns, 74%) | Dallas Cowboys (vs Arizona Cardinals, 86%) | Green Bay Packers (vs Carolina Panthers, 78%) | 7.3% / 4.7% / 4.2% |
| 9 (DOUBLE) | Seattle Seahawks (vs Arizona Cardinals, 92%) Kansas City Chiefs (vs New York Jets, 85%) |
Detroit Lions (@Miami Dolphins, 85%) San Francisco 49ers (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 84%) |
Chicago Bears (vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 64%) New Orleans Saints (vs Cleveland Browns, 70%) |
5.7% / 3.3% / 1.9% |
| 10 | Indianapolis Colts (vs Miami Dolphins, 81%) | Los Angeles Rams (@Arizona Cardinals, 87%) | Houston Texans (@Cleveland Browns, 71%) | 4.6% / 2.9% / 1.3% |
| 11 | Dallas Cowboys (vs Tennessee Titans, 76%) | Kansas City Chiefs (vs Arizona Cardinals, 89%) | Los Angeles Chargers (vs New York Jets, 86%) | 3.5% / 2.6% / 1.2% |
| 12 (DOUBLE) | Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Tennessee Titans, 79%) Washington Commanders (@Arizona Cardinals, 68%) |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs Carolina Panthers, 68%) Cleveland Browns (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 60%) |
Cincinnati Bengals (vs New Orleans Saints, 71%) Indianapolis Colts (vs New York Giants, 61%) |
1.9% / 1.1% / 0.50% |
| 13 (DOUBLE) | Denver Broncos (vs Miami Dolphins, 89%) Philadelphia Eagles (@Arizona Cardinals, 82%) |
Minnesota Vikings (vs Carolina Panthers, 69%) Cincinnati Bengals (@Cleveland Browns, 68%) |
Washington Commanders (@Tennessee Titans, 52%) Seattle Seahawks (vs Dallas Cowboys, 74%) |
1.4% / 0.50% / 0.19% |
| 14 (DOUBLE) | Chicago Bears (@Miami Dolphins, 78%) Detroit Lions (vs Tennessee Titans, 85%) |
Baltimore Ravens (vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 76%) Seattle Seahawks (vs New York Giants, 82%) |
Denver Broncos (@New York Jets, 75%) Philadelphia Eagles (vs Indianapolis Colts, 75%) |
0.91% / 0.31% / 0.11% |
| 15 (DOUBLE) | Green Bay Packers (vs Miami Dolphins, 90%) New York Giants (vs Cleveland Browns, 68%) |
Denver Broncos (@Las Vegas Raiders, 72%) Washington Commanders (vs Atlanta Falcons, 61%) |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs New Orleans Saints, 63%) Los Angeles Rams (vs Dallas Cowboys, 75%) |
0.56% / 0.14% / 0.051% |
| 16 (DOUBLE) | Baltimore Ravens (vs Cleveland Browns, 87%) Los Angeles Chargers (@Miami Dolphins, 82%) |
New Orleans Saints (vs Arizona Cardinals, 81%) Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Carolina Panthers, 68%) |
New England Patriots (@New York Jets, 75%) Minnesota Vikings (vs Washington Commanders, 64%) |
0.40% / 0.075% / 0.025% |
| 17 | Buffalo Bills (@Miami Dolphins, 86%) | Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Washington Commanders, 71%) | Dallas Cowboys (vs New York Giants, 69%) | 0.34% / 0.053% / 0.017% |
| 18 | Houston Texans (vs Tennessee Titans, 81%) | Buffalo Bills (vs New York Jets, 89%) | San Francisco 49ers (@Arizona Cardinals, 81%) | 0.28% / 0.047% / 0.014% |
† Green Bay’s Week 3 win probability is revised down from 76% on Micah Parsons’ absence — see prior posts for the original adjustment. ‡ Las Vegas revised to 60% (was 63%) as this weekend’s line continued drifting toward Miami. § Tennessee holds at 53% on the final settled line. ¶ Jacksonville holds at 79% on the final settled line. # Tampa Bay holds at 73% against Cleveland. ″ Atlanta holds at 52% at home against Carolina.
What’s Next
All three entries play their actual Week 1 games Sunday, Sept. 13 — Raiders host Miami, Titans host the Jets, Jaguars host Cleveland. These are our final numbers heading into kickoff; we’ll be back Tuesday to grade the results and set up Week 2.