Roster-cutdown weekend has come and gone, the 32 teams are all down to 53 men, and the calendar has flipped to September — Week 1 of our Splash Sports “The Big Splash” pool kicks off in eight days. We went into cutdown weekend with one genuinely open watch item (Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty’s ankle) and a handful of smaller threads to close out. Here’s where every one of them landed, and why none of it moved our three picks for Week 1.
What Changed
- Roster cuts happened league-wide on Aug. 30 with no move that touches our board — we checked every team involved in a current pick across all three entries.
- Raiders cut backup RB Dare Ogunbowale on cutdown day, a move read around the league as a vote of confidence in Ashton Jeanty’s Week 1 status — but head coach Klint Kubiak stopped short of clearing him outright.
- Micah Parsons was officially placed on regular-season reserve/PUP by the Packers on cutdown day, mechanically locking him out through Week 4 and reconfirming the Week 5–6 return window we’ve already priced into Entry B’s Week 3 pick.
- Rashawn Slater’s serious knee injury — a torn patellar tendon — happened in August 2025, not this camp; he’s on track for a Week 1 return against Arizona.
- Cleveland’s initial 53-man roster reconfirms Deshaun Watson as the Week 1 starter over Shedeur Sanders; the only QB-room move was placing fourth-stringer Dillon Gabriel on IR with a back injury.
Entry A: Holding Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1
Entry A stays on the Las Vegas Raiders (69% vs. Miami) for Week 1. The Ashton Jeanty ankle injury is still the single item we’re watching most closely — Kubiak’s own words this week were “still on the mend, still working to get him back… we are counting on him,” which is short of a clearance. But cutting backup Dare Ogunbowale on roster-cut day is a real signal: teams don’t voluntarily thin their depth at a position they expect to need immediately. We seriously considered pulling a stronger, currently-unused team forward into Week 1 to de-risk the pick entirely — Denver Broncos (89% in their actual Week 13 slot) and Baltimore Ravens (87% in Week 16) were both on the table. We rejected both: Weeks 12–16 are the heaviest-weighted stretch of the whole season in our cost model (roughly 1.7x a single week), and spending a top-tier team there to save a few points in Week 1 is a bad trade even under a worst-case Jeanty scenario, since Miami’s defense still makes the Raiders a comfortable favorite with or without him at full strength. We’re holding.
Entry B: Holding Tennessee Titans in Week 1
Entry B stays on the Tennessee Titans (65% vs. the Jets) in Week 1. The one alternate we discussed seriously this week was pulling the Los Angeles Chargers (currently Entry B’s Week 2 pick, 84% vs. Las Vegas) forward into Week 1 instead — Rashawn Slater himself is targeting the Week 1 opener at Arizona for his own return, so in theory the Chargers could be live as early as this week. We passed on that swap: betting on Slater’s Week 1 debut is strictly riskier than betting on his Week 2 availability, and the Titans still grade out as a solid favorite over a rebuilding Jets team regardless. No reason to trade a clean, unforced Week 1 pick for a more speculative one.
Entry C: Holding Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1
Entry C stays on the Jacksonville Jaguars (81% vs. Cleveland), still comfortably the strongest of our three Week 1 picks. We double-checked the alternative of instead using Detroit Lions or Kansas City Chiefs, both of which sit in Entry C’s Week 3 double slot at 88% and 81% respectively — but both are needed there, where the double-pick weighting makes an early substitution expensive. On the matchup itself: Cleveland’s roster is confirmed at 53 with Deshaun Watson making just his first regular-season start in nearly two years, and Jaguars OG Patrick Mekari’s ongoing recovery from back surgery is a Jacksonville-side injury concern, not a reason to expect a worse outcome against Cleveland specifically. Jacksonville remains the pick.
The Full 18-Week Roadmap
No changes from last week — every pick below is unchanged since August 11 except the Week 3 Green Bay discount noted with a dagger. Survival odds in the last column are the cumulative product of each entry’s weekly win probabilities (both picks multiplied together on double-pick weeks).
| Wk | Entry A | Entry B | Entry C | Survival Odds (A / B / C) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Vegas Raiders (vs Miami Dolphins, 69%) | Tennessee Titans (vs New York Jets, 65%) | Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Cleveland Browns, 81%) | 69.0% / 65.0% / 81.0% |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs Cleveland Browns, 74%) | Los Angeles Chargers (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 84%) | Atlanta Falcons (vs Carolina Panthers, 61%) | 51.1% / 54.6% / 49.4% |
| 3 (DOUBLE) | New Orleans Saints (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 72%) San Francisco 49ers (vs Arizona Cardinals, 89%) |
New York Giants (vs Tennessee Titans, 66%) Green Bay Packers (vs Atlanta Falcons, 66%)† |
Detroit Lions (vs New York Jets, 88%) Kansas City Chiefs (@Miami Dolphins, 81%) |
32.7% / 23.8% / 35.2% |
| 4 | Minnesota Vikings (vs Miami Dolphins, 84%) | Chicago Bears (vs New York Jets, 82%) | New York Giants (vs Arizona Cardinals, 79%) | 27.5% / 19.5% / 27.8% |
| 5 | Cincinnati Bengals (@Miami Dolphins, 79%) | New England Patriots (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 84%) | Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Indianapolis Colts, 63%) | 21.7% / 16.4% / 17.5% |
| 6 (DOUBLE) | New England Patriots (vs New York Jets, 85%) Los Angeles Rams (vs Arizona Cardinals, 93%) |
Philadelphia Eagles (vs Carolina Panthers, 79%) Indianapolis Colts (vs Tennessee Titans, 68%) |
Buffalo Bills (@Las Vegas Raiders, 79%) Baltimore Ravens (@Cleveland Browns, 77%) |
17.2% / 8.8% / 10.7% |
| 7 | New York Jets (vs Miami Dolphins, 67%) | Houston Texans (vs New York Giants, 76%) | Tennessee Titans (vs Cleveland Browns, 61%) | 11.5% / 6.7% / 6.5% |
| 8 | Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Cleveland Browns, 74%) | Dallas Cowboys (vs Arizona Cardinals, 86%) | Green Bay Packers (vs Carolina Panthers, 78%) | 8.5% / 5.8% / 5.1% |
| 9 (DOUBLE) | Seattle Seahawks (vs Arizona Cardinals, 92%) Kansas City Chiefs (vs New York Jets, 85%) |
Detroit Lions (@Miami Dolphins, 85%) San Francisco 49ers (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 84%) |
Chicago Bears (vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 64%) New Orleans Saints (vs Cleveland Browns, 70%) |
6.7% / 4.1% / 2.3% |
| 10 | Indianapolis Colts (vs Miami Dolphins, 81%) | Los Angeles Rams (@Arizona Cardinals, 87%) | Houston Texans (@Cleveland Browns, 71%) | 5.4% / 3.6% / 1.6% |
| 11 | Dallas Cowboys (vs Tennessee Titans, 76%) | Kansas City Chiefs (vs Arizona Cardinals, 89%) | Los Angeles Chargers (vs New York Jets, 86%) | 4.1% / 3.2% / 1.4% |
| 12 (DOUBLE) | Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Tennessee Titans, 79%) Washington Commanders (@Arizona Cardinals, 68%) |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs Carolina Panthers, 68%) Cleveland Browns (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 60%) |
Cincinnati Bengals (vs New Orleans Saints, 71%) Indianapolis Colts (vs New York Giants, 61%) |
2.2% / 1.3% / 0.6% |
| 13 (DOUBLE) | Denver Broncos (vs Miami Dolphins, 89%) Philadelphia Eagles (@Arizona Cardinals, 82%) |
Minnesota Vikings (vs Carolina Panthers, 69%) Cincinnati Bengals (@Cleveland Browns, 68%) |
Washington Commanders (@Tennessee Titans, 52%) Seattle Seahawks (vs Dallas Cowboys, 74%) |
1.6% / 0.6% / 0.2% |
| 14 (DOUBLE) | Chicago Bears (@Miami Dolphins, 78%) Detroit Lions (vs Tennessee Titans, 85%) |
Baltimore Ravens (vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 76%) Seattle Seahawks (vs New York Giants, 82%) |
Denver Broncos (@New York Jets, 75%) Philadelphia Eagles (vs Indianapolis Colts, 75%) |
1.1% / 0.4% / 0.1% |
| 15 (DOUBLE) | Green Bay Packers (vs Miami Dolphins, 90%) New York Giants (vs Cleveland Browns, 68%) |
Denver Broncos (@Las Vegas Raiders, 72%) Washington Commanders (vs Atlanta Falcons, 61%) |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs New Orleans Saints, 63%) Los Angeles Rams (vs Dallas Cowboys, 75%) |
0.7% / 0.2% / 0.1% |
| 16 (DOUBLE) | Baltimore Ravens (vs Cleveland Browns, 87%) Los Angeles Chargers (@Miami Dolphins, 82%) |
New Orleans Saints (vs Arizona Cardinals, 81%) Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Carolina Panthers, 68%) |
New England Patriots (@New York Jets, 75%) Minnesota Vikings (vs Washington Commanders, 64%) |
0.5% / 0.1% / 0.03% |
| 17 | Buffalo Bills (@Miami Dolphins, 86%) | Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Washington Commanders, 71%) | Dallas Cowboys (vs New York Giants, 69%) | 0.4% / 0.1% / 0.02% |
| 18 | Houston Texans (vs Tennessee Titans, 81%) | Buffalo Bills (vs New York Jets, 89%) | San Francisco 49ers (@Arizona Cardinals, 81%) | 0.3% / 0.06% / 0.02% |
† Green Bay’s Week 3 win probability is revised down from 76% on Micah Parsons’ absence — see prior post for the original adjustment.
What’s Next
Week 1 kicks off Sept. 9, and this is the last preseason-style update before we start posting actual results alongside picks. Between now and then we’re watching one thing above all: Ashton Jeanty’s practice status for the Raiders this week. If he’s ruled out or clearly limited, Entry A’s Week 1 pick is the one we’ll revisit — everything else on the board is holding as-is.