The Falcons enter 2026 with a new head coach, a genuinely unusual quarterback room, and a roster that’s been retooled up front on both sides of the ball. After three straight years of near-misses under the old regime, this is a franchise trying to find out if a fresh voice is the difference between 8-9 and a division title — here’s our team’s full breakdown of where things stand.
2025 Season Recap
Atlanta finished 2025 at 8-9 for the second consecutive season, missing the playoffs for an eighth straight year. The record was more frustrating than the number suggests: the Falcons opened 3-2, then stumbled through a 1-7 stretch that buried them before a furious four-game winning streak to close the year, including a comeback over Tampa Bay in which they erased a 28-14 deficit for a game-winning field goal. A three-way tie atop the NFC South at 8-9 ultimately went to Carolina on the head-to-head tiebreaker, leaving Atlanta on the outside looking in yet again.
The season also turned on an injury: quarterback Michael Penix Jr. suffered a partially torn ACL in Week 11 and needed season-ending surgery, handing the offense to Kirk Cousins down the stretch. There were real bright spots even in a losing year — the Falcons set a franchise record with 57 sacks, and Bijan Robinson authored one of the best seasons in team history, breaking William Andrews’ single-season scrimmage-yards record with more than 2,176 yards and ripping off a 93-yard touchdown run, the longest in franchise history. It wasn’t enough to save the regime: head coach Raheem Morris was fired immediately after the finale with a 20-25 record and no playoff appearances in three years, and general manager Terry Fontenot was let go alongside him.
Offseason Moves
Atlanta’s offseason started at the top, with Kevin Stefanski hired as head coach in January and given the job of building his first staff for the organization. He kept defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich and running backs coach Michael Pitre in place, but brought in Tommy Rees as offensive coordinator and Bill Callahan to run the offensive line — a group tasked with protecting whoever wins the most-watched position battle in Atlanta this summer.
That battle is the story of the offseason. With Kirk Cousins released and Penix still working back from his ACL, the Falcons signed Tua Tagovailoa to a one-year deal after Miami released him following a rocky final season there. It leaves Atlanta with two left-handed starting-caliber quarterbacks on the roster heading into camp, with veteran Trevor Siemian — who has history with Stefanski — behind them as insurance. Elsewhere, the Falcons added pass-rush help in Azeez Ojulari and Samson Ebukam, retooled the offensive line with tackle Jawaan Taylor, and brought back familiar faces in tight end Austin Hooper and receiver Olamide Zaccheaus. Running back Tyler Allgeier and linebacker Kaden Elliss both departed in free agency, to Arizona and New Orleans respectively.
Without a first-round pick this year, Atlanta’s top selection came on Day 2: cornerback Avieon Terrell out of Clemson at No. 48, who joins his older brother AJ Terrell in the secondary. The Falcons also added speed and return ability in Georgia receiver Zachariah Branch, and used a late-round pick on linebacker Harold Perkins Jr., a talented LSU prospect still working back from his own ACL tear.
2026 Season Outlook
On paper, using last year’s opponent records, Atlanta’s schedule looks like one of the lighter slates in the league. Using projected win totals for opponents instead — a better gauge of actual difficulty — it grades out closer to a top-half toughness schedule, and the matchups back that up: home dates against Detroit, Baltimore, San Francisco, and Kansas City, plus road trips to Green Bay and Pittsburgh. There’s real quality on this slate even if the raw numbers undersell it.
How the season goes will likely hinge on how quickly the new coaching staff gets its footing and how the quarterback competition resolves. A healthy, productive Penix would be one outcome; a Tagovailoa bounce-back under a staff he’s comfortable with would be another. Either way, a retooled pass rush and one of the league’s best young running backs in Bijan Robinson give this team a real foundation to work from.
Our Team’s Projection
We’re projecting Atlanta at 8-9 for 2026 — essentially a repeat of last year’s record, but for different reasons. The Falcons’ win total opened at 6.5, with the market favoring the over at -146. Our projection leans toward that over, and the reasoning is straightforward: this roster has more talent than an 8-9 finish suggests, the defensive front is deeper after adding Ojulari and Ebukam, and Robinson alone should keep Atlanta competitive in most games regardless of who’s playing quarterback.
The under case deserves equal weight. New coordinators installing new systems in year one often cost a team a handful of close games early, the quarterback competition could easily bleed into the regular season and disrupt any offensive rhythm, and Atlanta has now gone under its projected win total in seven of the last eight seasons — a pattern that doesn’t disappear just because the roster looks better on paper. For anyone considering a bet here, our Bet Smarter breakdown on how season win totals actually work is a good primer on weighing exactly this kind of split.
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