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Your last stop before placing your bets....
Weather can affect a football game in many ways. Obviously as it gets later into the season weather gets more extreme and can have a bigger affect on games - and lines. Early in the season, heat is certainly a factor and is part of our evaluation for the first 2-3 games of the season. Teams that train in warm weather cities will have and edge when playing on hot afternoons in September. Another sometimes over looked aspect of weather that can affect games is wind. High winds don't always get the attention of a big snow storm or freezing cold temps but ask a passing team that likes to go deep how the wind, even minor crosswinds, can wreak havoc on the offense. Heavy rain has a big impact on games as well, the common thought is that it favors the running game and lends itself to a low scoring game. The problem with that thought process is that the rain can also lead to turnovers and provide short fields for offenses. Also consider that the running back knows where he's going, the defense doesn't so their footing could actually be more challenging. Our thought when evaluating weather for our picks is that extreme rain will in fact grind a game to a halt and unders look smart. But generally speaking, since we post our football picks so early in the week, we avoid games in which the forecast calls for a high probability of heavy rain. Predicting football games is tough enough, we don't want to try and predict the weather as well. So then there's snow. We feel it has much the same affect as rain. When very heavy it certainly can make moving the ball tough. But as with rain, just how heavy it actually is at game time and throughout the game can change how the game will be played. And don't forget the cold - when the temps drop the ball gets harder, hands get cold and catching the ball gets much touhger. As does throwing the ball or even hanging on it to for a running back. So what's the bottom line? We'll stick to predicting football winners and avoid predicting the weather.
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