NFL Picks Week - Wildcard Picks

Very nice value here with Arizona based on recent results. Atlanta playing well and a great story all season. Meanwhile the Cardinals struggled down the stretch against some tougher competition. However, it should be noted that 2 of those losses were after clinching the division and they did get a 13 point win last week. Arizona did feast on the less than stellar NFC West (6-0) but their losses came to tough very competition: at New England, vs Minnesota (a week after clinching first div title in forever), at Philly, vs NY Giants, at Carolina, at NY Jets (early when they were playing well), and at Washington (again, early in the year when Wash was starting 6-2). So do the math, 6-2 at home! Atlanta 4-4 on the road and their schedule certainly not tougher than Arizona's as they played the pathetic AFC West and had St Louis and Detroit to pick on. Home dogs in the wildcard round are 7-2 ATS in recent history.
Arizona Cardinals +2.5

Smart money here plays on the total - the number rather high - but is it with good reason?
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This one could be quickly summed up by only saying the Ravens D is too outstanding to bet against the Ravens. And we believe that to be true. We do have a preference for the more experienced QB in the post-season but we've seen enough from Flacco making plays - and rarely being asked to do too much that we can look past it. The Dolphins defense certainly respectable but not dominant like the Ravens D has been all season long. Pennington has had a very nice season, no question but some expectation to see him return to historic form under severe distress all day long. Ravens offense not top shelf but they've gotten the job done this season and can hit big plays when the D starts to sell out against the run. We don't like that the number has creeped up to 3.5 as we expect a close game but we'll say it again - the Ravens D is simply too outstanding.
The total here is probably the better play.

Ravens/Dolphins UNDER 37.5
Baltimore Ravens -3.5

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