NFL Wild Card Weekend

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We initially had advertised 3 Top Picks for this game.  Due to weather conditions in both Seattle and San Diego we are no longer able to call 2 of our picks TOP PICKS.  There is ONLY ONE PICK this week GOOD ENOUGH to be a TOP PICK!  And it's pretty darn good!!!
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St. Louis at Seattle

Round 3 back in Seattle.
Revenge for the Seahawks?  Can the Rams make it 3-0 on the season?  They'd be the 11th team in 16 playoff tries to finish the 3 game sweep of a team.  Neither team comes in exactly on fire but both have some playmakers and can be very good on offense when they're on their game.

The biggest issue here is looking to be the weather on Saturday in Seattle. The forecast calls for rain/snow. This of course hurts our once very strong preference for the 'over' in this game. We still think that's the smarter play as neither defense is very good - even with the familiarity factor in play. We won't go over all the story lines surrounding the third meeting, etc... the media has beat that to death already. Bottom line here is that you can't trust either team in this game - which generally makes the dog the smarter play. If it's the Seahawks at their potential best vs. the Rams at their potential best we'd love the Seahawks. But we haven't seen the Seahawks play to that potential since very early in the season. We aren't convinced Hasselback will be 100% and until his receivers can stop dropping passes they are going to hurt themselves. Alexander however can make the passing issues not matter at all in a hurry. This guy is one of the top backs in the game and CAN take this game over - but he too has had some dropping the ball issues. The Rams and Bulger have looked better in recent weeks. If Martz will let Jackson get the majority of the carries the Rams should be able to run the ball on Seattle and that will open up big playmakers for the Rams. We don't generally like dome teams outdoors, and in cold bad weather is even worse. But the Seahawks have simply struggled too much lately to be trusted. Note that Seattle is 1-7 ATS at home this season and the end of the year losses for the Rams 2-2 finish both game with Bulger out of the lineup.

 

St. Louis Rams +4
Rams/Seahawks OVER 49.5

New York Jets at San Diego

Jets back into the playoffs, and never really got it going with Pennington back after playing well enough to stay alive with him out.  The Chargers the biggest surprise of the year (don't we have one every year).  But is this the same old Marty - playoff bust?  Jets beat the Chargers WAY back in week 2....

With rain forecast for San Diego all weekend the field will be wet. Both teams use the run and their defense to set up their offense anyway - and now that becomes more important so this looks like a solid under play.


After a strong start the Jets fought to keep their playoff hopes alive when Pennington went down. However, Chad has not looked the same since his return from that injury. He has been unable to take advantage of the play action openings their solid running game gives them. But the Chargers WILL be able to contain Curtis Martin - they've been solid against the run all season. Their weakness is their corners - and we don't think Pennington can exploit that. The San Diego offense has enough looks and enough weapons to move the ball and get points against this tough Jets D. The Chargers are for real, they should have an easy win in this one.

Note - the Chargers pick was originally a TOP PICK, however with the weather conditions as such we simply can't recommend it is a top play anymore as the running game's are rather equal and we felt the biggest advantage SD had was the passing game, in a heavy rain it will be tough to pass much - weather considering 'under' looking good - BET IT EARLY to get the highest number, it will only continue to drop!

 

Jets/Chargers UNDER 42.5
San Diego Chargers -6.5

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Denver at Indianapolis

Does the Week 17 Bronco trouncing of the Colts mean anything?  Can the Colts offense keep the train rolling in the playoffs?  Last year in the wildcard round the Colts behind 5 TD passes from Manning beat the Broncos 41-10...


Last year late in the season Denver beat Indy. Then Indy rolled the Broncos in the playoffs as Peyton Manning was amazing. Will it happen again? We don't think so. The Broncos when at their best can run the ball and control the game. If they take the ball out of Plummer's hands they can stay close. If Plummer must carry this team, he can't and it's another Indy blowout. But the Indy defense has a lot of holes and although recently improved we still don't think they can be trusted. Additionally we are a bit concerned about the Colts offense - they seemed a bit off in weeks 15 and 16 (week 17 not a factor of course) as teams pressured Peyton Manning. IF the Broncos can do this, they again have a chance to stay close. We don't think Jake Plummer and the Broncos can WIN in Indy - but we do think they can stay in this game as all the pressure is on the Colts. It's probably the weakest play of the weekend as you must respect Manning and that offense but a good run game by Denver and some pressure on Manning can keep this one closer than this high line. The slightly better play in this game, but probably still one of the weekends weaker plays is the 'under' - the Broncos simply can't trade points with Indy - Plummer isn't that good. If it's close enough for the Broncos to cover then it's low scoring. The other possiblity is a repeat of last season and an Indy blowout, which also leads to 'under'.

 

Denver Broncos +10
Broncos/Colts UNDER 56.5

Minnesota at Green Bay

Packers ride Favre to the playoffs after a very tough start to the year.  The Vikings don't (despite their best efforts) play themselves out of the playoffs this season.  With Moss and Culpepper seeming to regain their rythm can they make a SuperBowl run?  Can the Packers erase the demons the Falcons ending their previous Lambeau playoff streak?  Green Bay beat Minnesota twice this season (see above stat referencing that 10 of 15 teams with a chance to make it 3-0 over a team - did).....

We don't like dome teams outdoors - especially the Vikings.  Yes, the Vikings were terrible down the stretch.  BUT - these teams played two very close games this year and they know each other well.  This game will be close.

Minnesota Vikings +6

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