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I'm stunned. I've been doing this for A LOT of years. I've never seen anything like this. The average point spread for the 15 Sunday NFL games is a whopping 8.4 points!! That's amazing! So what does it mean? Normally one might conclude that this means there is a good balance of very good teams and very bad teams in the league. But that is NOT the case in the NFL 2004, what we have is a lot of bad teams and a lot of really bad teams, and some really, really bad teams and just a few very good teams. Historically in the NFL point spreads like this would signal to play a lot of dogs - but we can't do that automatically - teams are blowing opponents out at an alarming rate. Note that home dogs getting a TD or more (normally easy money) are just 6-19 this season. against the spread.

So with bad teams playing really, really bad teams - how do we make money?
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Oakland at Atlanta

Can the Falcons bounce back after a terrible showing a week ago? We think so - they'll be facing a much more vulnerable defense and the Raiders, although better lately don't posses an imposing offense.

The Ravens defense will not let up on still learning Eli Manning as they did a week ago. Giants defense giving up too much and the Ravens offense has been better the second half of the season.

Bills continue to improve, and until a week ago their defense was very solid while McGahee provides impressive balance for the Bills. The Browns problems are too numerous too mention. The line has gotten big quickly for playing the Bills, but still the right play.  Bills 4 straight covers at home, Browns 0-5 ATS on the road!

Cowboys with a strong running game have started to put up some points, seems their defense has failed them a bit at the same time. Everything failing the Saints right now.

Packers resurrgence started by blowing out the Lions in Detroit in week 5, a 7-0 spread run ended abruptly last week gets back on track here. The Lions are the 29th ranked offense in the league - look for a very big bounce back from this Packers defense after last week.

Can the Colts keep it rolling - Titans tough at home....
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Theorectically Moss should be a little stronger every week - haven't really seen that - could be he rushed back. Vikings historically not a strong finishing team - we're seeing that again. Seahawks collapse continuing - but neither team can play defense and the Vikings struggling more on offense then the Seahawks.

Tempting to take the Bengals who are an early favorite to really step up next season and finally be a playoff team behind Palmer. But the Partriots are impressively focused week after week and are certainly the toughest D that Palmer has dealt with in his young career.

Broncos often guilty of playing down to their opponents and making these type of games closer than they need to - another factor in all these huge pointspreads - teams that do play down or don't play focused can still cover double digits. Dolphins have problems at every spot on the field. Must win for the Broncos - they'll be solid at home.

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Best move here is to pass - both teams inconsistent - and both teams relatively bad. Don't believe the Cardinals are 7 points better than any team in the league - even the 49ers.

Panthers marked as top pick early in the week - but Chandler at QB for the Rams could help them. Bulger wasn't getting it done - Chandler obviously not a long term solution but a spark for the Rams could keep them close. But we doubt it. Still go with the Panthers.

Buccs offense better with Griese, still strong (although not great) on defense. Let down spot for the Chargers, this should be a close game.

Have often seen the Eagles not at the top of their game look flat when a huge favorite. But it doesn't seem to matter, they just keep winning and they keep building leads. Don't expect another explosion from the Redskins offense, probably more like the team that couldn't score even 20 points. Road favorites laying 7+ points are 19-6 this season!

Kansas City at Tennessee

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