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TOP PICKS 3-1 last year in the Divisional Round!!!

Quite a weekend last week - not one but two 8-8 teams win - that's never happened. And 3 of the 4 road teams won - also a first!

So....we must now guard against overreacting to those wins. Or do we learn from it and be ready for a repeat this weekend?

Wildcard Weekend has historically been ruled by favorites - particularly home teams. Obviously this strong trend got upended last weekend. So as we examine the history of the Divisional Weekend we must be leary of a heavy ATS advantage for the high seeded home teams (that of course just had a bye week). 6 of 8 games in '01 and '02 were decided by 14 points or more!

So although we tend to like strong trends when team or coach related we see less substance in game trends that are independent of teams.

Luckily we've got it all sorted out for this weekend...Don't miss our TOP PICKS!!!

Note - our TOP PICK guarantee that we offered during the regular season applied to the regular season only.

Can the rookie QB continue to get it done now that it's January? Can the up and down Jets find another UP game, again on the road? Can the Jets stop The Bus? Can the Steelers stop the NFL Rushing Leader? Find out....2 of our 3 TOP PICKS RIGHT HERE!!!

Not afraid to tell you that we ultimately have never felt we had a good handle on the Falcons this entire season. But, this is also not uncommon - many people still wonder about this team. Easy to point to the Rams poor finish to the year - but we must note that 2 of those disasters where with Chris Chandler at the helm and another with Bulger not 100%. Bulger is now very close to 100% and gaining confidence with every throw. The Falcons offense is rather one-dimensional - it's Vick. Now that's a good dimension to be sure. The key to this game is can the Rams at least slow down the Falcons run game, including Vick? Early season match up and some season statistics say probably not. But this defense has improved late in the season and with some key changes have been better. So although a shutdown of Vick and company won't happen, they may be able to slow them just enough to stay close with their offense. The Rams are their own worst enemy, but the offense is gaining confidence and looking very good lately. Can't give too much credit to win over bad Seattle team but the Rams believe they can win this game - and that goes a long way. If Martz doesn't do too many stupid things and the Rams can not behind big early they can keep this close enough to take the points.

Again, must try hard to not look too closely at just one week (last week) for the Vikings. This team was bad down the stretch and made a few big plays against a lousy Packers D. Eagles have a lot to prove. Their are many factors that go against the Eagles, and we believe them all to be valid intangibles: Eagles rusty, lacking T.O., no confidence in playing without T.O. But we believe they turn all these around into motivators and the defense steps up. But the EA$Y money here is with the over/under - too easy not to take advantage!

Best advice for this game. Don't bet it. Just watch it and enjoy it. This is a GREAT match up. You don't need a bet on this game to enjoy it! That being said, we still break it down. The obvious key here is the less than great DB's for the Patriots against the VERY impressive Colts offense. But it takes more than just the passing game, or inability to stop it to decide a winner. There are plenty of ways to stop (ok, at least slow) Peyton Manning. And you KNOW that Belichick will have a few of them figured out. The difference in this Colts team versus past years is an effective, healthy James - and Mungro to allow him some rest during the game. This one could come down to coaching and play calling ultimately. But we can't mention the Colts ground game without pointing out the vast improvement of the Patriots attack with Corey Dillion. And no secret that the Colts D has some weaknesses - but they did improve during the year. This one will be close, likely coming down to a FG. Experience and home field BIG edges for the Patriots, but this year you can't bet against Peyton Manning. Of course the same could be (and probably should be) said of Belicheck. We give the edge to the Colts, although only slight. Although neither play that strong quite honestly we do prefer the 'under' in this game as the stronger bet for the last of the weekend. Pats know they must keep Manning on the sideline as much as possible - they will run and use short passes in this game - very much what they do anyway. And although tough to not play 'over' with Peyton Manning and this offense we do believe that the Pats D will have more stops than most teams have had this season.