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 Perhaps too many points but we simply don't see the Bills having the offense or enough left on D to rise to this challenge.  As if home field advantage in the AFC isn't enough - does anybody remember a 31-0 game on opening day?  I can think of some Patriots that do....it's pay back time!

One fighting for a playoff spot! The other without their star WR! So how is this game so easy - we'll tell you!!  EA$Y MONEY!!
And it's one of our STRONGEST TOP PICKS OF THE YEAR!!!

Certainly we respect the recent resurgence of home dogs, but too many problems in Washington and too much to play for with Philly.  OT loss last week devistating - but gets them focused and fired up here!

FOUR TOP PICKS this week - including this one with the line at least a TD off the mark!! Take advantage!

Desperation time for the Bengals and they get a good draw.  Marvin Lewis will have his team ready and the Browns run D is too soft.  Look for big games from Rudi and Corey setting up Kitna with effective play action.

Dynamic changes here with a Philly loss - but with a Philly win we love the Rams to dominate the Lions - you need extra incentive to be up for a Detroit game - thus the condition of an Eagle win to play the Rams.  Either way the smart money in this game goes with an easy winner on the total - it's one of 4 TOP PICKS this week!

St. Louis Rams -10.5*
*Check line and our LATE UPDATE with a Philly win

*** Update - Eagles WIN - This has quickly moved the line to -12 for the Rams over the Lions - expect that to click up a few more 1/2 points before it closes.  Again, with the week off anyway not as much need to rest starters, more important for the Rams to get the win and home field advantage, stick with the Rams at the higher number.

Look for the Colts to bounce back as they need a win to take the division.  But be careful - going into Houston has been dangerous for many teams - and continues to be even though everyone should know better by now.  Carr and Davis are emerging as a dangerous duo and make no mistake - the Texans will be up for this game.  Colts will get their points against a thining defense and the D looking to make statement after last week.  Tempting to take the Texans and a TD at home, but after last week expect a big game from both sides of the ball with the Colts.

Check back on this one.  How much do think Jeff Fischer wishes Indy played yesterday?  With an Indy win the Titans really can't change their 1st round fate in the playoffs - he'd rest McNair.  We'll wait on a QB decision (if we get one) before posting here.

*Check line here - Chiefs locked in at #2 seed if Patriots have already won.  Stay tuned to our late update.  However - many things to consider in this one regardless of Saturday results.  We'll look at from a Patriot win point of view, perhaps the line is doing the same.  The Chiefs are desperate for a confidence builder - BUT can you really get one against the Bears and a rookie QB in his first road start?  Maybe - in case you haven't noticed the Bears D has been solid lately - we're pretty sure you've noticed the Chiefs has not been.  Also - do the Chiefs rest players?  Probably not (at least not until the 2nd half) - two reasons, first is Priest Holmes needing 1 TD to set the single season rushing record - they will get him that before he comes out and the #1 everything else is in if Priest is in the game.  And remember, the Chiefs don't need the rest - they have a week off anyway.  Again, check back and check the line.  PS - if the Pats lose Saturday, play the Chiefs by 3 TDs.

Kansas City Chiefs -7*
*Check back and the check the line

***Update - Patriots WIN - This locks KC in as the #2 seed - BUT the Chiefs desperately need some confidence, and they have the week off already.  Look for a strong effort from KC despite this locked in spot.  The line has dropped to 7, we still like KC.  A very strong play in this one is KC -4 in the 1st half or KC -1/2 in the first quarter!! 

Who is the better motivating coach likely decides this one.  Tough to back either team, stay away from this one.  But if you insist, take the points in this type of game.

If Philly loses - check the line, our late update and play the Cowboys.  However a Philly win may make motivation tough for Dallas - Parcells may change that.  We believe Dallas is best served with a confidence building win in this one, they are the smarter play either way, but very smart (before the line jumps) if Philly has been upset.

New Orleans Saints -2

*** Update - The Eagles win has also made the Cowboy game less meaningful.  Cowboys are locked in - they can't win the division and the Saints are now a 2 point favorite.  Ultimately another good one to avoid but we'd slightly favor the Saints now and some rest not a bad idea for some Cowboys players and motivation will be tough.

Check back - we'll wait to hear some game plan thoughts from Carolina as they can't change their playoff spot but could use some confidence also awaiting word on the Giants QB.

Once again - stick with our TOP PICKS - 3 on Sunday!
Tough to back either team in this game, although ultimately tempted to take the home dogs - call it a feeling??  Panthers little motivation here and certainly tempted to pull starters late.  Another good week 17 pass.

Except for the fact that I simply couldn't form the sentence: the Arizona Cardinals are a top pick.  And not mean a top pick to get destroyed this might have been a top pick.  Several reasons to love the Cardinals here - possibly to get the SU win!  First, the Vikings have been bad on the road. Second, the Cardinals excellent at home.  Also...Vikings mindset - beat KC and we get the win against the Cardinals and we win the divison.  They think they've already won the division.  This is absolutely the classic definition of a let down and over looking a team!

Frankly, another game of who cares!??!  Neither team playing particularly well or inspired football.  More talent for Oakland, perhaps more effort from San Diego.  The Raiders not be a bad play as players could be auditioning for next season.  Good spot to take the points.  Which is worse laying points with the Chargers are taking any thing with the Raiders?  Lesser of 2 evils it seems.

Can Favre ride the emotion another week or in to the playoffs.  After watching him Monday Night - WOW! Why not?  Packers among the most confusing of the playoffs scenarios - just know this - a win helps a lot - but still may not be enough.  Bottom line, Packers more to play for, playing well lately and we haven't really seen back-to-back good games from Denver this season.

Take the points, regardless of circumstances with a Steelers team who will play hard until the end.  But cash in in primetime with a money maker on the total for this one!! It's one of 4 TOP PICKS!

Pittsburgh Steelers +7.5
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Weekly Late Update
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Don't forget! 3 TOP PICKS go on Sunday!
http://www.scottspicks.com/membersentry.htm

Playoff scenarios changing.....

Patriots WIN (as we predicted!) - This locks KC in as the #2 seed - BUT the Chiefs desperately need some confidence, and they have the week off already.  Look for a strong effort from KC despite this locked in spot.  The line has dropped to 7, we still like KC.  A very strong play in this one is KC -4 in the 1st half or KC -1/2 in the first quarter!! 

Eagles WIN (as we predicted!) - This has quickly moved the line to -12 for the Rams over the Lions - expect that to click up a few more 1/2 points before it closes.  Again, with the week off anyway not as much need to rest starters, more important for the Rams to get the win and home field advantage, stick with the Rams at the higher number.

This win has also made the Cowboy game less meaningful.  Cowboys are locked in - they can't win the division and the Saints are now a 2 point favorite.  Ultimately another good one to avoid but we'd slightly favor the Saints now and some rest not a bad idea for some Cowboys players and motivation will be tough.

Injury Updates.....

Looks like McNair will go.  Our best advice here is pass - it's possible that if the Colts open up a huge lead in their game Fisher could back off and rest his starters.  That being said if both teams play like the game matters we see far less positives for the Buccs and would recommend the Titans - but this game is a risky play either way.

Car/NYG - Davis should go, Collins likely will not. Tough to back either team in this game, although ultimately tempted to take the home dogs - call it a feeling??  Panthers little motivation here and certainly tempted to pull starters late.  Another good week 17 pass.

Also...don't forget to keep an eye on that Baltimore line as the Cinncy game unfolds.  We still think the Steelers will come up solid and keep this one close.  If Cinncy wins the line goes up take it - but be careful it will drop with a Cinncy loss.

Other good plays on Sunday.....

As we mentioned, take a close look at playing KC in the 1st Quarter (-1/2) and the first half (-4) as they will at least come out very strong and get Priest his record breaking TD.

Also, Arizona continues to look like a strong play as we've said all week.  And we really like the Packers to have another big game!

Good Luck!

Scott
www.ScottsPicks.com