If this were a regular Saturday afternoon on a neutral field we’d like Nebraska by 30 points.  K-State is less talented at several spots on the field and most importantly they are a very one-dimensional team on offense.  Stop the run, stop K-State.

BUT….
This is not a Saturday afternoon on a neutral field.  This is the last conference game (possibly the last game ever) between rivals K-State and Nebraska.  This is Thursday Night national prime time on ESPN.  This is Bill Snyder.  This is Bill Snyder with an extra 1/2 week to prepare.

So ALL the intangibles favor the double digit underdog.

K-State runs the ball very well, that is one area of weakness for Nebraska so the Wildcats may be able to take advantage.  But if the Huskers sell out to stop the run there’s little change K-State can be successful passing the ball on a consistent basis.  And Bill Snyder has several tricks up his sleeves – special teams magic, trick plays….who knows…..

So if we had to pick it, we’d go Nebraska to cover.  But we aren’t posting this pick officially and I’m not betting on it myself.

~ Scott

Biggest disappointment of the season: NY Jets
Expectations for this team are simply too high. They barely made the playoffs last year then, yes, did go on a “magical” run – mainly because nobody took them seriously and they played over their heads. They aren’t the most talented team in the league and it’s very unlikely they’ll be able to play all out, 100% sell out football on every play of every game this season. They will miss the playoffs.

Honorable mention to the Vikings – Favre is very unlikely to repeat his amazing year of last season and with Chester Taylor gone will AP have the stamina to be great all season long when he’s picking up blitzes on 3rd down all season?

Biggest positive surprise of the season: San Francisco 49ers
Another year of experience for Alex Smith, an arsenal of weapons around him and a solid defense in a weak division makes the 49ers a likely playoff contender.

Honorable mention to  the Oakland Raiders – Jason Campbell is no star QB but he’s a big upgrade at the position and Oakland has some RBs to throw out there.

So who wins it all you ask?
Let’s start in the divisions:

AFC East Champion: New England Patriots – Remember them?  They still have Tom Brady last time we checked.
AFC North Champion: Baltimore Ravens – A very impressive offense to go with that D – we like that!
AFC West Champion: San Diego Chargers  - Chargers by default here. Raiders will challenge so could KC or Denver.
AFC South Champion: Indianapolis Colts – A bit by default again, Titans have a change to make some noise as does Houston if they ever play D.

AFC Wildcards
Tennessee Titans – Not entirely sold on Vince Young as a solution but they have many weapons.
The 2nd WC is wide open – we’ll lean to Cincinnati beating out the Jets, Bills, Steelers and Texans in a weird tie-breaker.

And in the NFC……

NFC East Champion: Dallas Cowboys – They simply have too much talent not to win the slightly down division.  Although watch out for Washington!

NFC North Champion: Green Bay Packers – They won’t likely lose at home so only 4-4 on the road gives them 12 wins and the division.

NFC West Champion: San Francisco 49ers – Arizona will fall hard this year, St Louis a few years away and although Seattle might make some noise the Niners have the most balance in the division.

NFC South Champion: New Orleans Saints – Don’t want to say by default here because they Saints are an excellent team but only Atlanta has the potential to challenge and we aren’t sold on the Falcons.

NFC Wildcards
This could be jumbled mess as we see a lot more bad teams in the NFC than AFC which means about 6 teams could be challenging for 2 spots here…..Eagles, Giants, Redskins, Vikings, Falcons, Panthers.
We’ll look for Minnesota and Philadelphia to emerge.

The Championship Games

Green Bay over New Orleans (in Green Bay) – The in Green Bay factor will be significant here.

Baltimore over New England – The Ravens are the most balanced team in the AFC and it will show in a hard fought win to go the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl Champ

Green Bay Packers over Baltimore Ravens – Defense wins championships, right?  Yes but what many will expect to be a low scoring will not be but ultimately Aaron Rodgers as Super Bowl MVP gets it done.

NFL Week 1 Picks coming soon!  And stay with ScottsPicks.com all season for football picks!

Penn State is quietly rolling over early season opponents – again.

Auburn’s D might be back!

The total on the South Carolina/Georgia game was 38 – BOTH teams went over by themselves!

Not so fast (again) for Tennessee. Not so fast for Missouri.

Yes, BYU is really good.

Michigan over Notre Dame is a HUGE win for the Wolverines! Let down next week?

Oklahoma State – can you say HUGE disappointment? That’s what a let down looks like….

Boise State – just keep rolling! And Tulsa and is Nebraska back?

Biggest thought on Saturday night as the very late games are underway…..NFL Sunday is just hours away!

But it’s been worth the wait!! COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS ARE NOW POSTED!

Good Luck!

In sports handicapping I miss opportunities sometimes as well. A starting pitcher who has gone 110+ pitches in his previous 2 starts. A back-to-back game in the NBA when the whole team was out at the local bar until 2am last night. Some are easier to spot than others.

Ask Courtney Lee and the Orlando Magic about missed opportunities. Was Courtney Lee’s shot the easiest of the night? No. Was it a VERY good look considering time and situation? Yes it was.
Did the ball coming out of the basket end the Magic’s chances at an NBA Title? Probably so.

The difference between being tied 1-1 (thus the lower seed has stolen home court advantage) and being down 0-2 is rather significant.

In NBA history, 94.2% of the time teams winning the first two at home go on to win the series!
Only once has a team down 0-2 won the series when it’s happened in the NBA Finals!

And when the format of 2-3-2 is used (which I don’t particularly like but that’s another rant) only once has the team with 3 in middle won all 3 games. So unless this rarity happens again (and that’s very unlikely in this series) the Lakers will come back to Los Angeles no worse than needing to win 1 home game in 2 tries.
However, I don’t think it’s coming back to LA for anything more than a parade.
Lakers in 5
Magic win Tuesday, Lakers win the next 2 to take the title.