The Official ScottsPicks.com Blog - A Sports Handicappers Blog » Basketball

Ban Big 10 Basketball

Scott — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 21:19:54 +0000

I’m not suggesting that Big Ten basketball go away all together – just that it’s no longer on TV. It is simply hard to watch this brand of basketball.

Xavier Henry Still Going To Kansas – So He Says

Scott — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 15:32:06 +0000

I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and believe that after saying AGAIN that he’s coming to Kansas to be a Jayhawk he actually will but I still believe that the circus that unfolded the last 3 days is still a serious indictment of the college basketball recruiting process. And in this case much of these problems were caused by his father Carl Henry who can’t keep his mouth shut. And that might just be the problem.

Can’t wait to see the Henry brothers in a KU uniform starting this fall!

ROCK CHALK JAYHAWK!

Xavier Henry – Henry Brothers and Henry Family Have No Class

Scott — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 20:22:03 +0000

It was a joke before this week – dating way back to when Calipari left Memphis (frankly, before that) its been a joke. College basketball recruitment is a dirty, nasty business which is a joke.

Now both Xavier Henry and his older brother CJ Henry are indicating they may not be headed to Kansas afterall. And the KU Jayhawks might be better off without him. After comments by their father that clearly indicated they have no interest in attending classes or being in college started a firestorm on Monday of this week its gotten worse. Now stories are out that Bill Self is flying to meet with the Henry family right away – hopefully to resolve this once and for all.

When Henry indicated (and there is no letter of intent at this stage – you only get one such letter and his was with Memphis, which he’s been released from) he was coming to Kansas to be a Jayhawk KU became the overwhelming favorite for the national title in 2010. If they don’t come – that changes.

But at this point, none of that matters. What this brings up is simply this – what the hell is wrong with college basketball, college basketball recruiting, families and kids being made huge stars for being high school athletes. This display by the Henry brothers – back and forth, changing their minds again, sucking up all the media that goes with it, etc, etc… is all a joke. It’s pathetic. It isn’t changing anytime soon but it’s a disgrace.

Missed Opportunities – 2009 NBA Finals

Scott — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 20:54:32 +0000

Missed opportunities are everywhere.
A great deal on something you’ve been wanting to buy that just ended. Just passing the last bailout exit before you hit huge traffic.

In sports handicapping I miss opportunities sometimes as well. A starting pitcher who has gone 110+ pitches in his previous 2 starts. A back-to-back game in the NBA when the whole team was out at the local bar until 2am last night. Some are easier to spot than others.

Ask Courtney Lee and the Orlando Magic about missed opportunities. Was Courtney Lee’s shot the easiest of the night? No. Was it a VERY good look considering time and situation? Yes it was.
Did the ball coming out of the basket end the Magic’s chances at an NBA Title? Probably so.

The difference between being tied 1-1 (thus the lower seed has stolen home court advantage) and being down 0-2 is rather significant.

In NBA history, 94.2% of the time teams winning the first two at home go on to win the series!
Only once has a team down 0-2 won the series when it’s happened in the NBA Finals!

And when the format of 2-3-2 is used (which I don’t particularly like but that’s another rant) only once has the team with 3 in middle won all 3 games. So unless this rarity happens again (and that’s very unlikely in this series) the Lakers will come back to Los Angeles no worse than needing to win 1 home game in 2 tries.
However, I don’t think it’s coming back to LA for anything more than a parade.
Lakers in 5
Magic win Tuesday, Lakers win the next 2 to take the title.

The 2009 NBA Finals – A Sports Handicappers Look

Scott — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 03:23:07 +0000

Well we didn’t get the Lakers v Cavs final many wanted and final I predicted. But I do believe that from a sports handicappers perspective we have some advantages. First, the Lakers are a very popular team and will get a lot of action from “fans” as much as gamblers. This tends to push the line just a bit to favor the Magic as the sportsbooks look to balance this tendency a bit. Adding to this factor is that the Magic remain an under rated team. A lot has been talked about and written about how Orlando was perfect (and maybe only) team to be Cleveland but they aren’t that good. Seems to me if that’s true they are a tough match up for LA as well. So I see value with Orlando plus the points, at least early on in the series. We’ll continue to make our picks looking for this added value with the Magic who few are giving a chance to win the series. We look for the Lakers to simply have too much in the end and win this series in 6 games but no game will likely be easy.

Cavs on the Brink

Scott — Wed, 27 May 2009 15:48:07 +0000

The dream match up of LeBron vs Kobe in the NBA Finals is going take a miracle now. The Cavs go down 3 games to 1 last night in Orlando. In another game that game down to the final seconds and this time LeBron didn’t hit the shot – it was a very tough shot but a decent look. Although tested it appears the Lakers are the superior team and will prevail in the West but it hasn’t been easy. For Cleveland the Magic were just the exact wrong match up and it’s going to cost us the James vs Bryant final we all wanted – not ALL of us I guess, but you know what I mean.

Maybe I’m selling the Cavs short. Maybe they can be the rare breed of team that comes back from down 3 games to 1. They do have home court for 2 of the 3 must win games. The problem is – the games have just been too close to believe the Cavs can find 3 straight wins. I’ll continue to root for the Cavs v Lakers finals (only partially because it’s what I predicted several weeks ago) and enjoy watching Kobe v LeBron.

The NBA Playoffs Make My Point

Scott — Wed, 13 May 2009 15:20:28 +0000

The Lakers are making my point about the challenges in handicapping sports – particularly NBA basketball. Effort. It is difficult to predict effort, drive and desire. During the regular season this challenge is most prevalent and you’ll see NBA teams essentially “take the night off” and it’s obvious and they get beat. In a long season this may not ultimately matter. This happens in all sports, the degrees and frequency vary but no sport is immune.

One of the reasons we’ve always felt we had more success in handicapping and making picks in the post season is because the effort, or lack of effort, is largely taken out of the game. The Lakers have put it back in. Their 40 point drubbing of the clearly inferior Houston Rockets shows the effort factor in the NBA remains in the playoffs. Games get away, I get that – no win, or loss is ever as big as it ends up. Things get away. But you don’t beat a team by FORTY POINTS unless you are significantly better. Yet, the Lakers are headed to a game 6 in this series.
Why?
They didn’t go 100% every night in the series.

Worst Video Highlight Commentary Ever?

Scott — Fri, 01 May 2009 14:17:21 +0000

I’m quick to admit that perhaps I’ve out grown the new hot demographic and maybe there are a lot of people who like this dribble. I also recognize that this is common and maybe even the standard for so called commentary on highlights. Neither of those things make it better.
But this is a growing problem, even outside of .com highlight reels. The quality of on-air TV announcers is horrible at times – unwatchable in many cases. The problem is easy to understand – there are too many channels, too many outlets and the talent pool of quality announcers and color commentators has gotten WAY too thinned out. Couple that with the current generation have a video game mentality, no attention span and in many cases a complete lack of respect for the game. I don’t just mean basketball – the problem has hit all sports and all levels.
Granted, this is just the NBA.com highlight reel but this commentary is terrible! I believe it’s Amhad Rashad as the lead guy (he was always terrible so I shouldn’t be surprised) who gets lost at least twice during the 4 minute clip. And the 2nd guy in the background is basically just making random noises – what the hell??? Just random words and random sound effects is about all he offers. Ridiculous. I welcome your comments – am I off base here? I am just old?

Celtics vs Bulls 2009 Round 1 – A Classic Playoff Series

Scott — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 15:13:03 +0000

5 games in the books – 3 have gone to OT and it’s between two iconic franchises – it doesn’t get much better than this….especially in the first round.

From a sports handicappers point-of-view our picks in this series have been to look at the underdog as every game seems destined to come down to the wire.

Game 6 will be an easy one for me to root for – I’m all about the Bulls winning. One simple reason: I want a game 7! It’s one of the joys of “not having a dog in the fight” when watching sports. I’m simply rooting for a great game and for this series to go to 7 games so it can end fittingly. And if we’re lucky, another OT game in the decider!

With the NBA playoffs and NHL playoffs in full swing it’s a great time to be a sports fan!

The NBA Playoffs 2009 – My Thoughts

Scott — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 11:32:58 +0000

Of course our individual games against the spread picks will be posted daily and may or may not align with my thoughts here….but with that disclaimer out of the way here’s my high level look at the NBA Playoffs as they get started on Saturday.

1st – I’ll say it again. They are too long! Teams can actually play at the same time as another game – the league won’t crumble. I get that the TV deal pays the bills but the NBA Playoffs have become way too made for TV.

In the East it is really starting to look like a one horse race. Which isn’t really a race at all I guess.
Cleveland looks really, really good. LeBron is simply outstanding and nearly unstoppable right now. An improved and confident supporting cast makes this team the team to beat as they have the experience of last season behind them as well. Their one weakness may be lack of depth but if they don’t need the depth they’ll be okay and in the Finals.

The only real threat to Cleveland is Boston but with Garnett hurting and possibly out for the entire playoffs the Celtics have an uphill battle to survive to the Cleveland series and will struggle to handle the confident Cavs. However – remember this and don’t under estimate it – Champions die hard. They will be a tough out even with some issues.

As far as I’m concerned the East discussion ends there.

In the West it might end even sooner.
The Lakers are scary good. They have depth and they have Kobe. Maybe I’m just dreaming about a Kobe vs LeBron finals (like most NBA fans – including the commissioners office and TV stations) but the Lakers are clearly the best team in the Western Conference.
The Lakers toughest opponent will be themselves – despite being the better team than everybody – they do have some unlucky matchup concerns potentially before the finals and could stumble if they aren’t focused. And that’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility for this team. The Spurs maybe get a bit of the champions die hard love but this team is banged up and old.

So it appears a pretty safe bet that we will in fact see the Lakers vs Cavaliers in the Finals. Can’t wait.